Assessing tsunami hazard using heterogeneous slip models in the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia
Assessing tsunami hazard using heterogeneous slip models in the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia
复制标题
使用印度尼西亚明打威群岛的异质滑移模型评估海啸灾害
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Latief
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Griffin;I. Pranantyo;W. Kongko;A. Haunan;R. Robiana;V. Miller;G. Davies;N. Horspool;I. Maemunah;Wisnu B. Widjaja;D. Natawidjaja;H. Latief
在印度尼西亚西苏门答腊岛明打威群岛的海岸线上绘制海啸危险地图，以支持疏散和灾害应对规划。利用随机非均质滑动发生器对巽他俯冲带明打威段的一系列地震破裂情景进行了正演模拟。根据1797年、1833年和2007年大地震的同震垂直变形的大地测量记录和珊瑚提供的约束条件，使用了多达1000个破裂模型来模拟淹没，并定义了包含所有这些情景的最大淹没区。与专家制定并通过科学共识达成一致的单一情景危害评估的比较表明，为了获得对潜在淹没地区更可靠和保守的估计，建立一套情景模型是有价值的。虽然本文提出的模型和单一情景模型都是基于利用过去事件的知识对未来事件特征的假设，但通过对一系列似是而非的结果进行抽样，我们可以在所应用的假设范围内对哪些地区可能在海啸期间被淹没进行更可靠的估计。
Abstract Tsunami hazard maps are generated for the coastline of the Mentawai Islands, West Sumatra, Indonesia, to support evacuation and disaster response planning. A random heterogeneous slip generator is used to forward model a suite of earthquake rupture scenarios on the Mentawai Segment of the Sunda Subduction Zone. Up to 1000 rupture models that fit constraints provided by coral and geodetic records of coseismic vertical deformation from major earthquakes in 1797, 1833 and 2007 are used to model inundation and to define a maximum inundation zone that envelopes all of these scenarios. Comparison with single-scenario hazard assessments developed by experts and agreed through scientific consensus shows that there is value in modelling a suite of scenarios in order to obtain a more robust and conservative estimate of potential inundated areas. Although both the model presented here and the single-scenario models are based on assumptions about the characteristics of future events using knowledge of past events, by sampling a range of plausible outcomes we gain a more robust estimate of which areas may be inundated during a tsunami within the bounds of the assumptions applied.
影响因子：
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作者：
R. Collings;D. Lange;A. Rietbrock;F. Tilmann;D. Natawidjaja;B. Suwargadi;Matthew Miller;J. Saul
通讯作者：
R. Collings;D. Lange;A. Rietbrock;F. Tilmann;D. Natawidjaja;B. Suwargadi;Matthew Miller;J. Saul
2009 年 9 月巴东地震
影响因子：
18.3
作者：
McCloskey J
通讯作者：
McCloskey J