How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?
How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?
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人民币升值将如何影响美国对华贸易逆差？
DOI：
10.2202/1534-5998.1454
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Willem Thorbecke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Willem Thorbecke
2005年，美国对中国的贸易逆差超过2000亿美元。许多人将这些失衡归咎于人民币币值。本文探讨人民币升值对美国对华贸易收支的影响。Johansen MLE和动态OLS的结果表明，中美名义出口和进口的长期真实的汇率系数大致等于1，这意味着需求的真实价格弹性更高。此外，许多人认为，人民币升值将导致亚洲货币普遍升值，这可能会对中国的加工出口产生重大影响。因此，人民币升值将有助于中美贸易的再平衡。
The U.S. trade deficit with China exceeded $200 billion in 2005. Many blame these imbalances on the value of the renminbi. This paper investigates how an appreciation of the RMB would affect the U.S. trade balance with China. Johansen MLE and dynamic OLS results indicate that the long run real exchange rate coefficients for nominal exports and imports between China and the U.S. equal approximately unity, implying that the true price elasticities of demand are higher. In addition, many believe that a Chinese revaluation will lead to a generalized appreciation of Asian currencies that could substantially impact China's processed exports. Thus an appreciation of the renminbi would help to rebalance trade between China and the U.S.