A sexually transmitted infection model with long-term partnerships in homogeneous and heterogenous populations
A sexually transmitted infection model with long-term partnerships in homogeneous and heterogenous populations
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DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2019.05.002
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发表时间：
2019-05
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
K. Gurski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Gurski
性传播感染的人口模型经常使用假设固有伙伴关系长度为零的传播模型。然而，在有长期伴侣关系的人群中，伴侣的感染状况、伴侣关系的长短和伴侣关系的排他性对感染率有显著影响。我们开发了一个自治的人口模型，可以解释感染的可能性，无论是临时的性伴侣或长期合作伙伴，谁是感染的伙伴关系开始或新感染。通过计算这些长期接触者的感染率的预期值，可以获得长期伙伴关系对感染率的影响。我们提出了一种新的方法来评估合作伙伴收购率的休闲或长期的伙伴关系，产生在一个更现实的终身性伴侣的数量。结果包括一个SI模型，具有不同的传染性水平的传播HIV和HSV-2的急性和慢性/潜伏感染阶段的同质（MSM）和异质（WSM-MSW）组。伴随的繁殖数量和敏感性研究强调了临时和长期伙伴关系对感染传播的影响。我们构造了一组自治方程，这些方程处理通常被自治方程忽略的问题，并且只能通过模拟或以非自治形式处理。该模型的自主制定允许简单的数值计算，同时将个人之间的随机瞬时接触和特定个人之间的长期接触的组合。
Population models for sexually transmitted infections frequently use a transmission model that assumes an inherent partnership length of zero. However, in a population with long-term partnerships, the infection status of the partners, the length of the partnership, and the exclusivity of the partnership significantly affect the rate of infection. We develop an autonomous population model that can account for the possibilities of an infection from either a casual sexual partner or a longtime partner who was either infected at the start of the partnership or was newly infected. The impact of the long-term partnerships on the rate of infection is captured by calculating the expected values of the rate of infection from these extended contacts. We present a new method to evaluate partner acquisition rates for casual or long-term partnerships which produces in a more realistic number of lifetime sexual partners. Results include a SI model with different infectiousness levels for the transmission of HIV and HSV-2 with acute and chronic/latent infection stages for homogeneous (MSM) and heterogeneous (WSM-MSW) groups. The accompanying reproduction number and sensitivity studies highlight the impact of both casual and long-term partnerships on infection spread. We construct an autonomous set of equations that handle issues usually ignored by autonomous equations and handled only through simulations or in a non-autonomous form. The autonomous formulation of the model allows for simple numerical computations while incorporating a combination of random instantaneous contacts between individuals and prolonged contacts between specific individuals.