Risk Assessment under Ambiguity : Precautionary Learning vs
Risk Assessment under Ambiguity : Precautionary Learning vs
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模糊性下的风险评估：预防性学习与
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发表时间：
2015
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通讯作者：
Daniel Heyen
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作者：
Daniel Heyen
负责监管食品安全或新物质等复杂风险的机构经常需要在模糊的情况下，即在无法确定监管行动可能产生的结果的概率的情况下，就风险评估和风险管理作出决定。社会应该为这些机构规定什么样的任务？在目前的讨论中，有两种方法很突出。一种是要求该机构应用基于预期效用理论的福利经济学。这种方法支持传统的成本效益分析（CBA）。另一个要求，模糊厌恶的决策规则-其中最大最小预期效用（MEU）是最有名的-被应用，以建立一个安全边际，根据预防原则（PP）。本文的贡献是一个相对的评估如何CBA和PP的任务影响的监管任务的风险评估。在我们的简约模型中，决策者可以决定一个信号的精度，提供噪声信息的收益相关参数。我们发现MEU对信息获取的复杂相互作用是由两种相互抵消的力量形成的，我们称之为“主动学习”和“研究悲观主义”。我们发现，与直觉相反，PP而不是CBA的授权往往会导致监管机构信息不灵通。因此，PP可能导致更高的监管错误可能性，例如批准有害的新物质。
Agencies charged with regulating complex risks such as food safety or novel substances frequently need to take decisions on risk assessment and risk management under conditions of ambiguity, i.e. where probabilities cannot be assigned to possible outcomes of regulatory actions. What mandates should society write for such agencies? Two approaches stand out in the current discussion. One charges the agency to apply welfare economics based on expected utility theory. This approach underpins conventional cost-benet analysis (CBA). The other requires that an ambiguity-averse decision-rule – of which maxmin expected utility (MEU) is the best known – be applied in order to build a margin of safety in accordance with the Precautionary Principle (PP). The contribution of the present paper is a relative assessment of how a CBA and a PP mandate impact on the regulatory task of risk assessment. In our parsimonious model, a decision maker can decide on the precision of a signal which provides noisy information on a payoff-relevant parameter. We find a complex interplay of MEU on information acquisition shaped by two countervailing forces that we dub ’Precautionary Learning’ and ’Research Pessimism’. We find that – contrary to intuition – a mandate of PP rather than CBA will often give rise to a less informed regulator. PP can therefore lead to a higher likelihood of regulatory mistakes, such as the approval of harmful new substances.
歧义下的学习——关于爱泼斯坦和施耐德信念动态的注解 (2007)
DOI：
10.11588/heidok.00017512
发表时间：
2007
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