Enhanced Urban Growth Modelling: Incorporating Regional Development Heterogeneity and Noise Reduction in a Cellular Automata Model - A Case Study of Zhengzhou, China
Enhanced Urban Growth Modelling: Incorporating Regional Development Heterogeneity and Noise Reduction in a Cellular Automata Model - A Case Study of Zhengzhou, China
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.scs.2023.104959
复制
发表时间：
2023-09
影响因子：
11.7
通讯作者：
Xuanchi Chen;Zongmin Wang;Haibo Yang;Alistair C. Ford;Richard J. Dawson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xuanchi Chen;Zongmin Wang;Haibo Yang;Alistair C. Ford;Richard J. Dawson
全球城市的快速扩张需要准确的模拟来理解未来的增长模式及其影响。元胞自动机，如广泛使用的斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型，确保了城市增长模拟的可靠准确性。然而，以往的研究忽略了次区域之间的发展异质性，将研究区视为同质性区域。在PLUS模型的基础上，提出了一个新的区域发展异质性与降噪耦合模型(RDHNR-PLUS)，该模型是一种改进的模型，它包含了从夜间光照数据得到的相对发展系数，以反映区域的异质性。它还采用了受图像分类小块处理方法启发的降噪技术。结果表明，相对发展系数有效地揭示了不同区域的潜力，而降噪过程降低了仿真噪声。这种组合方法将总体准确率、优值系数和结构相似度分别提高了4.56%、20.44%和5.06%。另外，对郑州市2000-2030年的建成区进行了模拟分析。调查结果表明，过去的快速增长，特别是在新的城市地区，预计未来的扩张可能会放缓。然而，以中高和高密度为主的建成区将占据该地区四分之三的面积。这些结果突显了郑州面临的可持续发展挑战，包括灾害风险、交通拥堵以及空气和噪音污染。
Rapid global urban expansion necessitates accurate simulations to comprehend future growth patterns and their implications. Cellular automata, such as the widely used patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, ensure reliable accuracy in urban growth simulations. However, previous studies have overlooked the development heterogeneity amongst sub-regions by treating the study area as the homogenous. Based on the PLUS model, this study introduces a new model coupling regional development heterogeneity and noise reduction (RDHNR-PLUS), which is an enhanced model that incorporates relative development coefficients derived from nighttime light data to capture regional heterogeneity. It also employs noise reduction techniques inspired by image classification's small patch processing method. Results demonstrate that the relative development coefficients effectively reveal the potential of different regions, while the noise reduction process mitigates simulation noise. The combined approach enhances overall accuracy, figure of merit, and structural similarity by 4.56 %, 20.44 %, and 5.06 %, respectively. Additionally, we simulate and analyse the built-up area of Zhengzhou from 2000 to 2030. The findings indicate rapid past growth, particularly in new urban areas, with projected future expansion likely to slow down. However, built-up areas dominated by medium to high and high densities will occupy three-quarters of the region. These results underscore the sustainability challenges faced by Zhengzhou, including disaster risk, traffic congestion, and air and noise pollution.