Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) for Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones
Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) for Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones
复制标题
大西洋盆地热带气旋强度模型误差（PRIME）预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Nolan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kieran Bhatia;D. Nolan
摘要利用统计方法对2007 - 2014年大西洋盆地热带气旋强度预报的绝对误差和偏差进行了强度模式误差预报（PRIME）。这些预测的预测误差制定使用逐步多元线性回归框架，并适用于12-120小时强度预测的逻辑增长方程模型（LGEM），衰减统计飓风强度预测计划（DSHP），插值飓风天气研究和预报模型（HWFI），插值地球物理流体动力学实验室（GHMI）飓风模型。选择的预测回归的风暴的具体特征，天气特征，和参数的组合，代表初始条件误差和大气流动stability. PRIME的性能进行评估，通过比较预测的绝对误差和偏差的气候这些数量的模型。使用配对t检验，误差...
AbstractStatistical methods are used to develop the Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) for both the absolute error and bias of intensity forecasts of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from 2007 to 2014. These forecasts of forecast error are formulated using a stepwise multiple linear regression framework and are applied to 12–120-h intensity forecasts for the Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM), Decay–Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (DSHP), interpolated Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWFI), and interpolated Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GHMI) hurricane model. The predictors selected for the regression are a combination of storm-specific characteristics, synoptic features, and parameters representing initial condition error and atmospheric flow stability.The performance of PRIME is assessed by comparing the predictions of forecast absolute error and bias to the climatology of these quantities for each of the models. Using paired t tests, the errors in...