Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Archibald, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stevenson, D. S.;Young, P. J.;Archibald, A.
利用参加“大气化学与气候模式比对计划”（ACCMIP）的17个大气化学模式的臭氧（O-3）资料，计算了对流层臭氧辐射强迫（RFs）。所有模型都采用了一套共同的人为排放量，这些排放量在当今比过去受到更好的约束。未来的人为排放遵循四种代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景，这些情景定义了相对较窄的可能空气污染排放范围。我们计算出工业化前（1750年）到现在（2010年）对流层臭氧RF值为410 mW m（-2）。工业化前到今天O-3变化的模型范围产生了+/-17%的RF扩展（+/- 1标准差）。使用了三种不同的辐射方案，我们发现方案之间的RF差异（对于相同的臭氧场）为+/-10%。应用两种不同的对流层顶定义，RF的差异为+/-3%。考虑到与排放、气候-化学相互作用和土地利用变化相关的额外（未量化）不确定性，我们估计对流层臭氧RF的总体不确定性为+/- 30%。由六个模型组成的子集进行的实验将对流层臭氧RF归因于甲烷（44 +/-12%）、氮氧化物（31 +/-9%）、一氧化碳（15 +/-3%）和非甲烷挥发性有机化合物（9 +/-2%）排放量的增加;早期的研究将对流层臭氧RF更多地归因于甲烷，较少地归因于氮氧化物。将RF归一化到对流层臭氧柱的变化，我们发现全球平均归一化RF为42 mW m（-2）DU-1，与以前的工作相似。使用归一化RF和未来对流层柱臭氧预测，我们计算未来对流层臭氧RF（mW m（-2）;相对于1750）的四个未来情景（RCP 2.6，RCP 4.5，RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5）350，420，370和460（2030年），200，300，280和600（2100年）。模型显示臭氧对气候变化的某些连贯反应：热带对流层下部的臭氧减少，与水蒸气增加有关;亚热带至中纬度对流层上部的臭氧增加，与闪电和平流层至对流层的传输增加有关。气候变化对全球平均对流层臭氧RF的影响相对较小。
Ozone (O-3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m(-2). The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O-3 produces a spread (+/- 1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/- 17 %. Three different radiation schemes were used we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/- 10 %. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/- 3 %. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/- 30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44 +/- 12 %), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 %), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 %) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 %); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(-2) DU-1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(-2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.