Effects of breeding versus winter habitat loss and fragmentation on the population dynamics of a migratory songbird
Effects of breeding versus winter habitat loss and fragmentation on the population dynamics of a migratory songbird
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DOI：
10.1890/14-1410
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发表时间：
2016-03-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Stutchbury, Bridget J. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Taylor, Caz M.;Stutchbury, Bridget J. M.
许多迁徙物种正在减少，理解这些减少是具有挑战性的，因为个体在一年内占据了广泛不同的地理上遥远的栖息地，因此整个范围内的种群以复杂的方式相互联系。网络模型已被用来表明，从理论上讲，迁移连接模式的变化可能会发生在生境或气候变化的反应，在一个地区的栖息地的损失可能会影响亚种群的地区没有直接连接。在这里，我们使用一个网络模型，通过将长期监测数据与对类似100只个体的直接跟踪相结合来参数化，来解释迅速减少的画眉（Hylocichla mustelina）的种群趋势并预测未来趋势。我们的模型表明，物种水平的下降主要是由于中美洲的热带森林砍伐，但在某些地区保护繁殖栖息地是必要的，以防止迁移连接的变化，并维持所有繁殖地区的人口。该模型说明了迁移连通性的变化如何导致关键地区的人口意外下降。我们强调了目前的知识差距，使迁移物种的全生命周期人口统计学建模具有挑战性，但也表明，建模可以告知保护，而这些差距正在被填补。
Many migratory species are in decline and understanding these declines is challenging because individuals occupy widely divergent and geographically distant habitats during a single year and therefore populations across the range are interconnected in complex ways. Network modeling has been used to show, theoretically, that shifts in migratory connectivity patterns can occur in response to habitat or climate changes and that habitat loss in one region can affect sub-populations in regions that are not directly connected. Here, we use a network model, parameterized by integrating long-term monitoring data with direct tracking of similar to 100 individuals, to explain population trends in the rapidly declining Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and to predict future trends. Our model suggests that species-level declines in Wood Thrush are driven primarily by tropical deforestation in Central America but that protection of breeding habitat in some regions is necessary to prevent shifts in migratory connectivity and to sustain populations in all breeding regions. The model illustrates how shifts in migratory connectivity may lead to unexpected population declines in key regions. We highlight current knowledge gaps that make modeling full life-cycle population demographics in migratory species challenging but also demonstrate that modeling can inform conservation while these gaps are being filled.