Summer-time climate impacts of projected megapolitan expansion in Arizona
Summer-time climate impacts of projected megapolitan expansion in Arizona
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1656
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Dudhia, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Georgescu, M.;Moustaoui, M.;Dudhia, J.
通过专门关注长寿命温室气体水平增加的影响来描述北美西南部气候变化的努力忽略了与大规模气候变化具有相似数量级影响的基本要素（1，2）。使用一套基于整体的，多年的模拟，在这里，我们显示了基于观测的城市引起的现象的加剧，并证明了在美国亚利桑那州的太阳走廊最迅速扩大的大都市地区的夏季气候的直接影响是相当大的。虽然在最大扩张情景中，城市引起的升温在当地接近4摄氏度，但影响取决于特定的发展轨迹。冷却屋顶的实施减少了约50%的模拟变暖，但夏季蒸散量的减少仍然至少与城市扩张没有这种适应模式一样大。城市引起的变暖相对于世纪中期和末期气候变化的贡献说明了对建筑环境扩张情景和排放途径的强烈依赖。我们的研究结果强调了新兴大都市地区对气候的直接影响，以及它们对克服当前可持续发展挑战的重要性。
Efforts characterizing the changing climate of southwestern North America by focusing exclusively on the impacts of increasing levels of long-lived greenhouse gases omit fundamental elements with similar order-of-magnitude impacts as those owing to large-scale climate change(1,2). Using a suite of ensemble-based, multiyear simulations, here we show the intensification of observationally based urban-induced phenomena and demonstrate that the direct summer-time climate effects of the most rapidly expanding megapolitan region in the USA-Arizona's Sun Corridor-are considerable. Although urban-induced warming approaches 4 degrees C locally for the maximum expansion scenario, impacts depend on the particular trajectory of development. Cool-roof implementation reduces simulated warming by about 50%, yet decreases in summertime evapotranspiration remain at least as large as those from urban expansion without this mode of adaptation. The contribution of urban-induced warming relative to mid- and end-of-century climate change illustrates strong dependence on built environment expansion scenarios and emissions pathways. Our results highlight the direct climate impacts that result from newly emerging megapolitan regions and their significance for overcoming present challenges concerning sustainable development(3,4).