Modulation of Annual Cycle of Tornadoes by El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Modulation of Annual Cycle of Tornadoes by El Niño–Southern Oscillation
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厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对龙卷风年度周期的调节
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Vittorio A. Gensini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Allen;M. J. Molina;Vittorio A. Gensini
长期趋势表明，龙卷风季节的高峰期提前，但未能研究逐年气候变化的作用。在这里，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动阶段被证明影响美国龙卷风的年度周期特征。观测和有利的环境表明，龙卷风发生的峰值空间分布和时间开始有很大的修改。拉尼娜现象使年峰值概率提前1.5-2周，3月和4月的事件总体比例较高。相比之下，厄尔尼诺现象导致最大可能性推迟一周，并增强秋季月份的第二个高峰。因此，这表明气候变化不是季节开始和高峰变化的唯一驱动因素，气候变率在调节年周期方面发挥着重要作用。
Long‐term trends suggest shifts toward earlier tornado season peaks, and yet fail to examine the role of year‐to‐year climate variability. Here, El Niño–Southern Oscillation phase is demonstrated to influence annual cycle characteristics of United States tornadoes. Observations and favorable environments show substantial modification of the peak spatial distribution and the temporal onset of tornado occurrence. La Niña produces an earlier annual peak probability by 1.5–2 weeks, with a higher overall fraction of events in March and April. In contrast, El Niño leads to a week delay in the maximum probability and enhances a second peak in the fall months. Consequently, this suggests that climate change is not the sole driver of changes to seasonal onset and peak, and climate variability plays an important role in modulating the annual cycle.