Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy
Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy
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DOI：
10.1016/s0169-555x(99)00078-1
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发表时间：
1999-12-15
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Reichenbach, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guzzetti, F;Carrara, A;Reichenbach, P
近年来，人口不断增长，住区和生命线在危险地区的扩展，大大增加了自然灾害对工业化国家和发展中国家的影响。第三世界国家难以通过重大工程和合理的土地利用规划来满足控制自然灾害的高昂成本。工业化社会越来越不愿意将资金投资于可以减少自然风险的结构性措施。因此，新的问题是实施预警系统和土地利用条例，以尽量减少生命和财产损失，而不投资于长期、昂贵的地面稳定项目。世界各地的政府和研究机构长期以来一直试图评估滑坡灾害和风险，并在地图上描绘其空间分布。提出或实施了几种不同的滑坡灾害评估方法。这些地图的可靠性和这些危险评估所依据的标准不正规或记录不全。地貌信息在很大程度上仍然是描述性的和主观的。因此，在规划土地资源和减轻地质灾害的影响时，它有点不适合工程师、决策者或开发商。在意大利中部的翁布里亚和马尔凯地区，已经完成或正在进行各种规模的尝试，以测试多元统计技术和不同方法的熟练程度和局限性，将领土划分为适合进行滑坡灾害评估的地区。这些试验表明，尽管存在着操作和概念上的局限性，但滑坡危险评估确实可能对土地使用规划提供一种适当的、成本效益高的帮助。在此框架内，工程地貌学可能会发挥新的作用，在评估高滑坡灾害的地区，并帮助减轻相关的风险。(C)1999 Elsevier Science B.V.保留所有权利。
In recent years, growing population and expansion of settlements and life-lines over hazardous areas have largely increased the impact of natural disasters both in industrialized and developing countries. Third world countries have difficulty meeting the high costs of controlling natural hazards through major engineering works and rational land-use planning. Industrialized societies are increasingly reluctant to invest money in structural measures that can reduce natural risks. Hence, the new issue is to implement warning systems and land utilization regulations aimed at minimizing the loss of lives and property without investing in long-term, costly projects of ground stabilization. Government and research institutions worldwide have long attempted to assess landslide hazard and risks and to portray its spatial distribution in maps. Several different methods for assessing landslide hazard were proposed or implemented. The reliability of these maps and the criteria behind these hazard evaluations are ill-formalized or poorly documented. Geomorphological information remains largely descriptive and subjective. It is, hence, somewhat unsuitable to engineers, policy-makers or developers when planning land resources and mitigating the effects of geological hazards. In the Umbria and Marche Regions of Central Italy, attempts at testing the proficiency and limitations of multivariate statistical techniques and of different methodologies for dividing the territory into suitable areas for landslide hazard assessment have been completed, or are in progress, at various scales. These experiments showed that, despite the operational and conceptual limitations, landslide hazard assessment may indeed constitute a suitable, cost-effective aid to land-use planning. Within this framework, engineering geomorphology may play a renewed role in assessing areas at high landslide hazard, and helping mitigate the associated risk. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.