Observed climate variations during the last 100 years in Lapland, northern Finland
Observed climate variations during the last 100 years in Lapland, northern Finland
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DOI：
10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(20000315)20:3
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发表时间：
2000-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Susan E. Lee;M. Press;John A. Lee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Susan E. Lee;M. Press;John A. Lee
许多大气环流模型预测，高纬度环境将在未来100年内经历大幅变暖，这将在冬季尤为明显。预计降水量也将增加，但数量和空间变化尚不确定。北极和亚北极地区的植物群和动物群，以及萨米人等土著人民，特别容易受到气温上升和降水量变化的影响。研究了芬兰北方过去100年的月平均气温和降水量数据。对20世纪上半叶和下半叶的这些数据进行了进一步分析。1876 - 1993年没有明显的变暖趋势，但1901-1945年出现了显著的年际变暖（r=0.344，ρ<0.05），同时也出现了显著的夏季变暖（r=0.381，ρ<0.05）。在过去的100年里，变暖一直发生在5月和6月，似乎有一个当前（即1990年后）的年度趋势，主要是由于冬季变暖。在1901-1945年期间，最大的温度异常增加是在冬季（+0.72 ° C）。冬季的温度变化程度大于夏季，从1901-1945年期间12月的3.98°C上升到1946-1990年期间的4.37°C。这是由于北大西洋涛动指数最近的高度变异。1880-1993年期间，年降水量显著增加。1946-1990年期间比1901-1945年更潮湿，变化更大，特别是在夏季，这对拉普兰的年降水量贡献最大。版权所有© 2000皇家气象学会
Many general circulation models (GCMs) predict that high latitude environments will experience substantial warming over the next 100 years, which will be particularly pronounced during the winter months. Precipitation is also expected to increase but there is uncertainty as to the amount and spatial variation. The flora and fauna of the arctic and subarctic regions, together with indigenous people, such as the Saami, are particularly vunerable to rising temperatures and changing precipitation. Mean monthly temperature and precipitation data were examined for the last 100 years for northern Finland. These data were further analysed for the first and second half of the 20th century. There was no discernible warming trend between 1876 and 1993, but a significant annual warming (r=0.344, ρ<0.05) occurred in the period 1901–1945, together with a significant summer warming (r=0.381, ρ<0.05). Warming has occurred consistently in May and June over the last 100 years and there appears to be a current (i.e. post 1990) annual trend, mostly due to winter warming. The greatest temperature anomaly increase for the period 1901–1945 was in the winter months (+0.72°C). The degree of temperature variation in the winter is greater than in the summer and has risen from 3.98°C for December in the period 1901–1945 to 4.37°C in the period 1946–1990. This is attributed to the recent high variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Annual precipitation has increased significantly during the period 1880–1993. The period 1946–1990 was wetter than 1901–1945, with greater variability particularly in the summer months, which contribute most to the annual precipitation in Lapland. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society