The Summertime Pacific‐North American Weather Regimes and Their Predictability
The Summertime Pacific‐North American Weather Regimes and Their Predictability
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DOI：
10.1029/2022gl099401
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发表时间：
2022-08
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Ebrahim Nabizadeh;Sandro W. Lubis;P. Hassanzadeh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ebrahim Nabizadeh;Sandro W. Lubis;P. Hassanzadeh
数值天气预报模式的预报技巧和内在可预报性在不同的天气过程中会有所不同。在这里，我们研究了在延长的北方夏季不同的太平洋-北美天气制度的可预测性。这四种天气系统包括太平洋槽、北极低压、北极高压和阿拉斯加高压脊。这些制度的中期预报技巧量化的ECMWF和国家中心的环境预测模型从TIGGE项目。基于异常相关系数，持续性，和过渡频率，最高的预报技巧是一致的北极高压制度。基于动力系统分析的瞬时局部维数和持续性，北极高压具有最高的内在可预测性。分析还表明，总体而言，太平洋槽制度具有最低的内在可预测性。这些发现与数值预报模式的预报技巧是一致的，并突出了预报技巧和内在可预报性之间的联系。
The forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and the intrinsic predictability can be different among weather regimes. Here, we examine the predictability of distinct Pacific‐North American weather regimes during extended boreal summer. The four identified weather regimes include Pacific trough, Arctic low, Arctic high, and Alaskan ridge. The medium range forecast skill of these regimes is quantified in the ECMWF and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction models from the TIGGE project. Based on anomaly correlation coefficient, persistence, and transition frequency, the highest forecast skill is consistently found for the Arctic high regime. Based on the instantaneous local dimension and persistence from a dynamical systems analysis, the Arctic high regime has the highest intrinsic predictability. The analysis also suggests that overall, the Pacific trough regime has the lowest intrinsic predictability. These findings are consistent with the forecast skills of the NWP models, and highlight the link between prediction skill and intrinsic predictability.