Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change
Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.1261824
复制
发表时间：
2015-02
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
D. Schindler;R. Hilborn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Schindler;R. Hilborn
强调稳健性、监测性和灵活性为环境保护和管理提供信息的大量研究采取了预测和规定的策略，其中提高对生态系统未来状态的预测是主要目标。但是，要充分透彻地了解生态系统，以减少深层次的不确定性，可能是不可能实现的，这严重限制了“预测和规定”方法的潜在有效性。相反，研究应该与政策制定更紧密地结合起来，以确定各种可能的未来，并制定在这些情景中都行之有效的战略，并对不可预测的生态系统动态作出反应。
Emphasize robustness, monitoring, and flexibility A great deal of research to inform environmental conservation and management takes a predict-and-prescribe strategy in which improving forecasts about future states of ecosystems is the primary goal. But sufficiently thorough understanding of ecosystems needed to reduce deep uncertainties is probably not achievable, seriously limiting the potential effectiveness of the predict-and-prescribe approach. Instead, research should integrate more closely with policy development to identify the range of alternative plausible futures and develop strategies that are robust across these scenarios and responsive to unpredictable ecosystem dynamics.