Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities.
Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10708-004-4946-y
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发表时间：
2004-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Veldkamp, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Verburg, P. H.;Schot, P. P.;Veldkamp, A.
土地利用变化模型是支持分析土地利用动态的原因和后果的工具。使用土地利用模型进行情景分析可以支持土地利用规划和政策。有许多土地利用模型可供使用，这些模型是从不同学科背景开发出来的。本文回顾了当前的模型，以确定未来土地利用变化建模研究的优先问题。本讨论基于对土地利用建模重要的六个概念： (1) 分析水平； (2)跨尺度动态； (3) 驱动力； (4)空间相互作用和邻里效应； (5) 时间动态； (6) 集成度。对于每个概念，都概述了用于在操作模型中实现这些概念的各种方法。结论是，在建立土地利用变化模型方面已经取得了很大进展。然而，为了纳入土地利用建模的更多重要方面，需要开发新一代土地利用模型，以更好地解决土地利用系统的多尺度特征，采用新技术来量化邻里效应，明确处理时间动态，并在研究城乡土地利用变化的学科方法和模型之间实现更高水平的整合。如果满足这些要求，模型将更好地支持土地利用动态分析和土地利用政策制定。
Land use change models are tools to support the analysis of the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Scenario analysis with land use models can support land use planning and policy. Numerous land use models are available, developed from different disciplinary backgrounds. This paper reviews current models to identify priority issues for future land use change modelling research. This discussion is based on six concepts important to land use modelling: (1) Level of analysis; (2) Cross-scale dynamics; (3) Driving forces; (4) Spatial interaction and neighbourhood effects; (5) Temporal dynamics; and (6) Level of integration. For each of these concepts, an overview is given of the variety of methods used to implement these concepts in operational models. It is concluded that a lot of progress has been made in building land use change models. However, in order to incorporate more aspects important to land use modelling, it is needed to develop a new generation of land use models that better address the multi-scale characteristics of the land use system, implement new techniques to quantify neighbourhood effects, explicitly deal with temporal dynamics and achieve a higher level of integration between disciplinary approaches and between models studying urban and rural land use changes. If these requirements are fulfilled, models will better support the analysis of land use dynamics and land use policy formulation.