Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the ozone response
Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the ozone response
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DOI：
10.1002/qj.2553
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发表时间：
2015-10-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Krivolutsky, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hood, L. L.;Misios, S.;Krivolutsky, A.
多元线性回归统计方法应用于耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP-5）的模式数据，以估计1979-2005年期间平流层臭氧，温度和纬向风的11年太阳周期响应。分析仅限于六个CMIP-5模型，这些模型可解析平流层（高层模型），并包括相互作用的臭氧化学。所有的模拟都假设了一个保守的11年太阳光谱辐照度（SSI）的变化的基础上，海军研究实验室模型。然后将这些模型响应与从两个独立的卫星臭氧廓线数据集和ERA中期再分析气象数据得出的相应观测估计值进行比较。这些模型显示了一系列11年的响应，其中三个模型（CESM 1-WACCM、MIROC-ESM-CHEM和MRI-ESM 1）得出了平流层上部太阳引起的臭氧变化，与现有观测相比，这些变化是有利的。其余三个模型则没有，显然是因为它们的辐射和光解率代码的细节不同。在两个半球的冬季，具有较强的上层平流层臭氧响应的三个模式在上层平流层产生相对较强的臭氧和温度的纬向梯度，这与太阳极大值条件下的极夜急流的加速有关。这一现象与卫星臭氧和ERA-Interim数据中发现的现象相似，只是在模式中纬度梯度往往出现在较高的纬度。急剧的臭氧梯度是动力学的起源，有助于辐射增强温度梯度，导致更强的纬向风响应。这些结果表明，模拟一个现实的太阳引起的上层平流层臭氧，温度和纬向风在冬季的变化是可能的，至少有一些耦合的气候模式，即使是保守的SSI变化是通过。
A multiple linear regression statistical method is applied to model data taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5) to estimate the 11-year solar cycle responses of stratospheric ozone, temperature, and zonal wind during the 1979-2005 period. The analysis is limited to the six CMIP-5 models which resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and which include interactive ozone chemistry. All simulations assumed a conservative 11-year solar spectral irradiance (SSI) variation based on the Naval Research Laboratory model. These model responses are then compared to corresponding observational estimates derived from two independent satellite ozone profile datasets and from ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological data. The models exhibit a range of 11-year responses with three models (CESM1-WACCM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and MRI-ESM1) yielding substantial solar-induced ozone changes in the upper stratosphere which compare favourably with available observations. The remaining three models do not, apparently because of differences in the details of their radiation and photolysis rate codes. During winter in both hemispheres, the three models with stronger upper-stratospheric ozone responses produce relatively strong latitudinal gradients of ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere which are associated with accelerations of the polar night jet under solar maximum conditions. This behaviour is similar to that found in the satellite ozone and ERA-Interim data, except that the latitudinal gradients tend to occur at somewhat higher latitudes in the models. The sharp ozone gradients are dynamical in origin and assist in radiatively enhancing the temperature gradients, leading to a stronger zonal wind response. These results suggest that simulation of a realistic solar-induced variation of upper-stratospheric ozone, temperature and zonal wind in winter is possible for at least some coupled climate models even if a conservative SSI variation is adopted.