Asbestos Fiber Concentration in the Area Surrounding a Former Asbestos Cement Plant and Excess Mesothelioma Deaths in Residents
Asbestos Fiber Concentration in the Area Surrounding a Former Asbestos Cement Plant and Excess Mesothelioma Deaths in Residents
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DOI：
10.1002/ajim.20743
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发表时间：
2009-10-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Kurumatani, Norio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kumagai, Shinji;Kurumatani, Norio
许多曾住在前石棉水泥厂附近的人（AC植物）死于天崎市的间皮瘤，方法对AC工厂周围地区的石棉纤维浓度进行估计，以便通过数学模型预测的女性间皮瘤死亡人数与观察到的过量死亡人数相同。结果在AC工厂南面的网格中，估计纤维浓度大于3f/ml，K-M（间皮瘤石棉效力因子）为7.75 × 10（-9）。不确定系数为5时，K-M范围为1.55 x 10（-9）至38.8 x 10（-9）;这些值对应于纤维浓度为15和0.6 f/ml。对于K-M = 7.75 x 10（-9），纤维浓度高于0.01 f/ml的网格单元估计延伸到工厂西南偏南4.1 km（95% CI：3.8-4.4 km）。在80年的研究期间（1970年至2049年），我们预测，根据研究的暴露将导致346多间皮瘤死亡的范围为296至382 deaths.Conclusions这一预测表明，相当大的医疗资源将需要通过2049年作为过去的石棉暴露在这一地区的结果。Am. J. Ind. Med. 52：790798，2009。(C)2009威利-利斯公司
Background Many persons who had lived near a former asbestos cement plant (AC plant) died from mesothelioma in Amagasaki city, Japan.Methods Asbestos fiber concentration in the area surrounding the AC plant was estimated so that the female mesothelioma death number predicted by a mathematical model was the same as the observed excess death number We used the estimated asbestos fiber concentration to predict the excess mesothelioma deaths from 1970 to 2049.Results In a grid just south of the AC plant, the fiber concentration was estimated to be more than 3 f/ml for K-M (asbestos potency factor for mesothelioma) of 7.75 x 10(-9). An uncertainty factor of five yields a K-M range 1.55 x 10(-9) to 38.8 x 10(-9); these in turn correspond to fiber concentrations of 15 and 0.6 f/ml. For K-M = 7.75 x 10(-9), grid units with higher fiber concentrations than 0.01 f/ml were estimated to extend 4.1 km (95% CI: 3.8-4.4 km) south-southwest of the plant. Over the 80-year study period (1970 to 2049), we predicted that the exposure under study will cause 346 excess mesothelioma deaths with range of 296 to 382 deaths.Conclusions This prediction suggests that considerable medical resources will be needed through 2049 as a result of past asbestos exposure in this region. Am. J. Ind. Med. 52:790798, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.