Emission Scenario Dependency of Precipitation on Global Warming in the MIROC3.2 Model
Emission Scenario Dependency of Precipitation on Global Warming in the MIROC3.2 Model
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DOI：
10.1175/2009jcli3428.1
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发表时间：
2010-05
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
H. Shiogama;S. Emori;Kiyoshi Takahashi;T. Nagashima;T. Ogura;T. Nozawa;T. Takemura
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Shiogama;S. Emori;Kiyoshi Takahashi;T. Nagashima;T. Ogura;T. Nozawa;T. Takemura
根据跨学科气候研究模式3.2 （MIROC3.2）耦合大气-海洋环流模式，在温室气体浓度和气溶胶排放较大的排放情景下，21世纪气候预估中每1k全球变暖的降水敏感性较小。通过在高排放情景和低排放情景下进行单独的强迫运行，研究了降水对排放情景敏感性的原因。结果表明，对排放情景的依赖主要是由于不同排放情景间黑碳气溶胶强迫和有机碳气溶胶强迫（二者的总和为冷却强迫）的差异造成的，并且降水对碳气溶胶比混合良好的温室气体更敏感。他们还调查了碳气溶胶运行中较大的降水敏感性（温度每冷却1 K降水减少幅度较大）的原因。表面变暗由于…
Abstract The precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming in twenty-first-century climate projections is smaller in an emission scenario with larger greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol emissions, according to the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2 (MIROC3.2) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The authors examined the reasons for the precipitation sensitivity to emission scenarios by performing separated individual forcing runs under high and low emission scenarios. It was found that the dependency on emission scenario is mainly caused by differences in black and organic carbon aerosol forcing (the sum of which is cooling forcing) between the emission scenarios and that the precipitation is more sensitive to carbon aerosols than well-mixed greenhouse gases. They also investigated the reason for the larger precipitation sensitivity (larger magnitude of precipitation decrease per 1 K cooling of temperature) in the carbon aerosol runs. Surface dimming due to the ...