Representation of Confidence in Assurance Cases Using the Beta Distribution
Representation of Confidence in Assurance Cases Using the Beta Distribution
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使用 Beta 分布表示保证案例中的置信度
DOI：
10.1109/hase.2016.52
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Insup Lee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lian Duan;Sanjai Rayadurgam;M. Heimdahl;O. Sokolsky;Insup Lee
保证案例用于记录系统（例如关键软件系统）满足某些所需属性（例如安全性、保密性或可靠性）的论点。表现出高度的信心，相信基于保证案例提出的索赔是可信的，这对于案件的成功至关重要。研究人员提出将置信度量化为关于保证案例的已消除担忧与已识别担忧总数的培根概率比。在本文中，我们通过将这种离散比率映射到连续概率分布（β 分布）来扩展他们的工作，从而实现索赔置信度的不同可视化。此外，β 分布使我们能够量化和可视化与表达的置信度相关的不确定性。此外，通过将保证案例转换为推理结构，我们展示了如何使用 beta 分布执行置信度计算。
Assurance cases are used to document an argument that a system -- such as a critical software system -- satisfies some desirable property (e.g., safety, security, or reliability). Demonstrating high confidence that the claims made based on an assurance case can be trusted is crucial to the success of the case. Researchers have proposed quantification of confidence as a Baconian probability ratio of eliminated concerns about the assurance case to the total number of identified concerns. In this paper, we extend their work by mapping this discrete ratio to a continuous probability distribution -- a beta distribution -- enabling different visualizations of the confidence in a claim. Further, the beta distribution allows us to quantify and visualize theuncertainty associated with the expressed confidence. Additionally, by transforming the assurance case into a reasoning structure, we show how confidence calculations can be performed using beta distributions.