Multi-level climate adaptation policy and causation narratives
Multi-level climate adaptation policy and causation narratives
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多层次气候适应政策和因果关系叙述
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
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通讯作者：
A. Patt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Patt
气候适应政策旨在减少与人为气候变化相关的影响的负面后果，而这些政策的成功往往取决于自然和人类系统内的因果关系。在本文中，我研究了这些因果关系的叙述的使用，并探讨了为什么在观察基础不大的叙述可以坚持指导政策。我研究三个案例研究，一个关于气候影响的叙述，第二个关于家庭财富和脆弱性之间的关系，第三个关于政策制定者本身的程序和需求。在每一种情况下，我发现，在现有的政策过程中，需要合法化和继续资源流动的叙述继续，尽管越来越多的经验和模型驱动的证据表明，叙述可能是不正确的。我将这些故事与社会学和进化论的理论进行了比较，并提出了纠正或改善政策过程以避免这种病态的重要性。
Climate adaptation policies are meant to reduce the negative consequences of the impacts associated with anthropogenic climate change, and in turn their success often depends on causal relationships within natural and human systems. In this paper, I examine the use of narratives about these causal relationships and explore why narratives with little basis in observation can persist in guiding policy. I examine three case studies, one concerning a narrative of climate impacts, a second concerning the relationship between household wealth and vulnerability, and the third concerning the procedures and needs of policy-makers themselves. In each case, I find that the narrative that was needed to legitimize and continue the resource flow within an existing policy process continued, despite growing empirical and model-driven evidence to suggest that the narrative may not be correct. I compare these stories with theories from sociological and evolutionary theory and suggest the importance of correcting or improving policy processes to avoid this pathology.