A New Norm for Seasonal Sea Ice Advance Predictability in the Chukchi Sea: Rising Influence of Ocean Heat Advection
A New Norm for Seasonal Sea Ice Advance Predictability in the Chukchi Sea: Rising Influence of Ocean Heat Advection
复制标题
楚科奇海季节性海冰进展可预测性的新规范：海洋热平流影响的上升
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0425.1
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Kuroda, Hiroshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nakanowatari, Takuya;Inoue, Jun;Zhang, Jinlun;Watanabe, Eiji;Kuroda, Hiroshi
楚科奇海季节性海冰推进的可预报性已经在白令海峡海洋热输送的背景下进行了研究;然而，基本的物理过程尚未完全阐明。使用泛北极冰-海模拟和同化系统（PIOMAS）再分析产品（1979-2016），我们使用典型相关分析检查了初冬（11月至12月）海冰推进的季节性可预测性及其来源。结果表明，提前2个月（9 - 10月）的表面热通量和海洋热平流是海冰推进年际变化的主要预测因子。地面热通量与大气冷却过程有关，特别是在20世纪80年代和90年代，大气冷却过程影响了楚科奇海东南部的海冰面积。与东太平洋/北太平洋遥相关型有关的强东北风引起的地面热通量异常。与白令海峡体积输送波动有关的海洋热平流导致楚科奇海西北部海冰面积减少。诊断分析表明，白令海峡体积运输的年际变化是受逮捕的地形波（ATW）所迫的东南风应力沿着东西伯利亚海陆架。自2000年以来，海洋热通量对海冰推进的贡献有所增加;因此，在本发明中，结果表明，影响初冬海冰推进年际变率的主要因素已从大气冷却过程转向海洋热平流过程。意义说明初冬北极边缘海海冰推进的可预报性是未来中纬度冬季预报的关键问题气候和海洋生态系统。本研究采用统计技术和历史模式模拟数据研究了初冬楚科奇海海冰推进的季节性可预测性。我们发现，大气冷却和海洋热传输是海冰推进的两个主要预测因素，自21世纪以来，后者的影响已经被放大。我们的新发现表明，关于风力驱动的洋流和温度的精确信息对于熟练预测当前和未来气候条件下海冰推进的年际变化至关重要。
Predictability of seasonal sea ice advance in the Chukchi Sea has been investigated in the context of ocean heat transport from the Bering Strait; however, the underlying physical processes have yet to be fully clarified. Using the Pan-Arctic Ice–Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) reanalysis product (1979–2016), we examined seasonal predictability of sea ice advance in early winter (November–December) and its source using canonical correlation analysis. It was found that 2-month leading (September–October) surface heat flux and ocean heat advection is the major predictor for interannual variability of sea ice advance. Surface heat flux is related to the atmospheric cooling process, which has influenced sea ice area in the southeastern Chukchi Sea particularly in the 1980s and 1990s. Anomalous surface heat flux is induced by strong northeasterly winds related to the east Pacific/North Pacific teleconnection pattern. Ocean heat advection, which is related to fluctuation of volume transport in the Bering Strait, leads to decrease in the sea ice area in the northwestern Chukchi Sea. Diagnostic analysis revealed that interannual variability of the Bering Strait volume transport is governed by arrested topographic waves (ATWs) forced by southeasterly wind stress along the shelf of the East Siberian Sea. The contribution of ocean heat flux to sea ice advance has increased since the 2000s; therefore, it is suggested that the major factor influencing interannual variability of sea ice advance in early winter has shifted from atmospheric cooling to ocean heat advection processes.Significance StatementPredictability of sea ice advance in the marginal Arctic seas in early winter is a crucial issue regarding future projections of the midlatitude winter climate and marine ecosystem. This study examined seasonal predictability of sea ice advance in the Chukchi Sea in early winter using a statistical technique and historical model simulation data. We identified that atmospheric cooling and ocean heat transport are the two main predictors of sea ice advance, and that the impact of the latter has become amplified since the 2000s. Our new finding suggests that the precise information on wind-driven ocean currents and temperatures is crucial for the skillful prediction of interannual variability of sea ice advance under present and future climatic regimes.