The accuracy and precision of age determination by dental cementum annuli in four northern cervids
The accuracy and precision of age determination by dental cementum annuli in four northern cervids
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四种北方鹿牙骨质环年龄测定的准确度和精密度
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发表时间：
2020
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通讯作者：
E. Solberg
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作者：
V. Veiberg;Erlend B. Nilsen;C. Rolandsen;Morten Heim;R. Andersen;Frode Holmstrøm;Erling L. Meisingset;E. Solberg
个人年龄是人口统计模型中的一个重要因素，但用于确定年龄的方法的局限性并不总是很清楚。利用驼鹿（Alces Alces）、马鹿（Cervus elaphus）、半家养驯鹿（Rangifer tarandus tarandus）和斯瓦尔巴驯鹿（Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus）的已知年龄数据，对恒切牙骨质环腔分析估算年龄的准确性和可重复性进行了评价。四名具有不同经验的观察者对每个宫颈的37个标本进行了盲法重复年龄估计。已知年龄和估计年龄之间的关系是线性的，除了斯瓦尔巴驯鹿，二次模型的拟合效果略好一些。在对观察者ID和动物ID进行校正后，随着驼鹿、马鹿和斯瓦尔巴驯鹿年龄的增加，对正确年龄的评估概率略有下降。在所有读数中，69%的提供者和观察者的估计年龄等于已知年龄，而95%的人年龄±1岁。有经验的观察者预测正确年龄评估的概率对马鹿为93%，对斯瓦尔巴驯鹿为89%，对驼鹿为84%，对半家养驯鹿为73%。无论观察者的经验和视力如何，对给定动物牙齿部分的重复评估之间都有很高的一致性。准确性在不同的提供者之间有所不同，但对于有过衰老经验的观察者来说，通常更高。我们得出的结论是，使用纵切门牙估计年龄的准确性通常很高，如果由具有给定物种的前衰老经验的观察者执行则更是如此。为了确保随时间推移的一致性，所分析的每个物种的已知年龄个体的参考材料应可用于校准和训练观察员。
Individual age is an important element in models of population demographics, but the limitations of the methods used for age determination are not always clear. We used known-age data from moose (Alces alces), red deer (Cervus elaphus), semi-domestic reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) and Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) to evaluate the accuracy and repeatability of age estimated by cementum annuli analysis of longitudinally sectioned permanent incisors. Four observers with varying experience performed blind duplicate age estimation of 37 specimens from each cervid. The relationship between known age and estimated age was linear, except for Svalbard reindeer where a quadratic model gave a slightly better fit. After correcting for observer ID and animal ID, there was a slightly declining probability to assess the correct age with increasing age for moose, red deer and Svalbard reindeer. Across cervids and observers, estimated age equalled known age in 69% of all readings, while 95% age ± 1 year. Predicted probability of correct age assessment for experienced observers was 93% for red deer, 89% for Svalbard reindeer, 84% for moose and 73% for semi-domestic reindeer. Regardless of observer experience and cervid, there was a high agreement between repeated assessments of a given animal’s tooth sections. The accuracy varied between cervids but was generally higher for observers with former ageing experience with a given cervid. We conclude that the accuracy of estimated age using longitudinally sectioned incisors is generally high, and even more so if performed by observers with former ageing experience of a given species. To ensure consistency over time, a reference material from known-age individuals for each species analysed should be available for calibration and training of observers.