Factors controlling alterations in the performance of a runoff model in changing climate conditions
Factors controlling alterations in the performance of a runoff model in changing climate conditions
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DOI：
10.2478/johh-2018-0031
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发表时间：
2018-10
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
P. Sleziak;J. Szolgay;K. Hlavčová;D. Duethmann;J. Parajka;M. Danko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Sleziak;J. Szolgay;K. Hlavčová;D. Duethmann;J. Parajka;M. Danko
摘要近几十年来，奥地利许多流域的年平均气温和降水量都有所增加，但年平均径流量变化很小。本文的主要目的是（1）分析概念性水文模型在气候变化条件下的性能变化，（2）评估控制这些变化的因素和模型参数。从1981年至2010年，在213个奥地利流域校准和验证了概念性的流域径流模型（TUW模型）。径流模型的效率的变化进行了比较，在平均年降水量和气温的变化和分层的流域占主导地位的融雪和土壤水分过程。结果表明，虽然模型在校准期间的效率在几十年内没有改变，但模型参数的值以及因此模型的性能（即，体积误差和径流模型的效率）在验证期间发生了变化。该模型的性能变化较大的流域占主导地位的土壤水分制度。对于这些流域，未用于校准的平均体积误差分别从0%（校准期1981-1990或2001-2010）增加到9%（验证期2001-2010）或-8%（验证期1981-1990）。在雪占主导地位的流域中，模型在校准期间往往会略微低估径流量（平均体积误差= -4%），但验证期间的变化非常小（即，体积误差的变化通常小于1-2%）。该模型在较冷的十年中校准（例如，1981-1990年）往往会高估较温暖和较潮湿的十年的径流（例如，2001-2010年），特别是在平原盆地。相反的情况（即，使用在较暖的十年中为较冷、较干燥的十年校准的参数）表明有低估径流的趋势。多元回归树分析表明，模拟径流量的变化与降水量的变化有明显的相关性，但在平原流域，这种关系不是线性的。模拟径流量变化的主要控制因素是两组流域降水量变化的幅度。对于以融雪径流为主的流域，其控制因素还包括流域的湿度和年平均降水量。对于具有土壤水分状况的流域，土地覆盖（森林）起着重要作用。
Abstract In many Austrian catchments in recent decades an increase in the mean annual air temperature and precipitation has been observed, but only a small change in the mean annual runoff. The main objective of this paper is (1) to analyze alterations in the performance of a conceptual hydrological model when applied in changing climate conditions and (2) to assess the factors and model parameters that control these changes. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model) was calibrated and validated in 213 Austrian basins from 1981–2010. The changes in the runoff model’s efficiency have been compared with changes in the mean annual precipitation and air temperature and stratified for basins with dominant snowmelt and soil moisture processes. The results indicate that while the model’s efficiency in the calibration period has not changed over the decades, the values of the model’s parameters and hence the model’s performance (i.e., the volume error and the runoff model’s efficiency) in the validation period have changed. The changes in the model’s performance are greater in basins with a dominant soil moisture regime. For these basins, the average volume error which was not used in calibration has increased from 0% (in the calibration periods 1981–1990 or 2001–2010) to 9% (validation period 2001–2010) or –8% (validation period 1981–1990), respectively. In the snow-dominated basins, the model tends to slightly underestimate runoff volumes during its calibration (average volume error = –4%), but the changes in the validation periods are very small (i.e., the changes in the volume error are typically less than 1–2%). The model calibrated in a colder decade (e.g., 1981–1990) tends to overestimate the runoff in a warmer and wetter decade (e.g., 2001–2010), particularly in flatland basins. The opposite case (i.e., the use of parameters calibrated in a warmer decade for a colder, drier decade) indicates a tendency to underestimate runoff. A multidimensional analysis by regression trees showed that the change in the simulated runoff volume is clearly related to the change in precipitation, but the relationship is not linear in flatland basins. The main controlling factor of changes in simulated runoff volumes is the magnitude of the change in precipitation for both groups of basins. For basins with a dominant snowmelt runoff regime, the controlling factors are also the wetness of the basins and the mean annual precipitation. For basins with a soil moisture regime, landcover (forest) plays an important role.