Transmission parameters of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N1) among industrial poultry farms in northern Italy in 1999-2000
Transmission parameters of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N1) among industrial poultry farms in northern Italy in 1999-2000
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.04.017
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发表时间：
2007-10-16
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Marangon, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mannelli, A.;Busani, L.;Marangon, S.
我们估计了从1999年12月到2000年4月袭击北方意大利家禽业（包括火鸡、蛋鸡、肉鸡、猎鸟和水禽）的高致病性禽流感（HPAI）疫情的农场间传播参数。我们使用广义线性模型（GLM）估计了每个感染性鸡场在一天（β）内感染HPAI病毒的易感鸡场的平均数量。分别计算了伦巴第大区和韦内托大区的高致病性禽流感的繁殖率（R-h;由感染性农场引起的新感染农场（IF）的平均数量），413个IF中有382个（92.5%）位于这两个地区。在这两个地区，R-h在流行的第二个月下降到接近1（表明已经开始控制）。随后，在流行的最后两个月，韦内托的β和R-h分别降至0.04/天和0.6，伦巴第降至0.07/天和0.8。韦内托通过严格的控制措施，包括预先屠宰有风险的家禽群，减少了易感人群，这可能与该地区比伦巴第更快地控制疫情有关。(C)2007 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
We estimated between-farm transmission parameters of the highly pathogenic avian-influenza (HPAI) epidemic that struck the poultry industry of northern Italy (including turkeys, layer hens, broilers, gamebirds, and waterfowl) from December 1999 through April 2000. We estimated the average number of susceptible farms that were infected with HPAI virus by each infectious farm during a day (beta) with a generalised linear model (GLM). The HPAI's reproductive ratios (R-h; the average number of new infected farms (IFs) that were caused by an infectious farm) were calculated separately for the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, where 382 out of 413 (92.5%) of IFs were located. In both regions, R-h decreased to similar to 1 during the second month of the epidemic (showing that its containment had been initiated). Subsequently, during the last two months of the epidemic, beta and R-h were reduced to 0.04/day and 0.6, respectively, in Veneto and to 0.07/day and 0.8 in Lombardy. The reduction of the susceptible population through strict control measures, including pre-emptive slaughter of at-risk poultry flocks, was implemented to a greatest extent in Veneto and this might have been associated with a more rapid control of the epidemic in this region than in Lombardy. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.