On the Bullwhip Effect Measure in Supply Chains with VAR (1) Demand Process
On the Bullwhip Effect Measure in Supply Chains with VAR (1) Demand Process
复制标题
基于VAR的供应链牛鞭效应测度（一）需求过程
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Sadeghi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. K. Charsoughi;A. Sadeghi
基于以下考虑，本文研究了一个包含两种产品的两级供应链，并对牛鞭效应进行了量化。本文的基本目的是提供一种度量牛鞭效应的方法，使我们能够分析和减少两种产品供应链中的牛鞭效应。用一阶向量自回归时间序列表示产品需求量，根据订货策略建立订货系统。另外，由于移动平均法在真实的世界中被广泛应用，因此提前期需求预测是基于移动平均法的。在此基础上，导出了牛鞭效应测度的一般方程，并讨论了现有牛鞭效应测度方法中不存在牛鞭效应测度的显式表达式的问题。然而，牛鞭效应方程提出了一些有限的情况下。最后，通过算例分析了两产品供应链中的牛鞭效应。
In this paper, a two-echelon supply chain, which includes two products based on the following considerations, has been studied and the the bullwhip effect is quantified. Providing a measure for the bullwhip effect that enables us to analyze and reduce this phenomenon in supply chains with two products is the basic purpose of this paper. Demand of products is presented by the first order vector autoregressive time series and ordering system is established according to order up to policy. Moreover, lead-time demand forecasting is based on moving average method because this forecasting method is used widely in real world. Based on these assumptions, a general equation for the bullwhip effect measure is derived and there is a discussion about non-existence of an explicit expression for the bullwhip effect measure according to the present approach on the the bullwhip effect measure. However, the bullwhip effect equation is presented for some limited cases. Finally, the the bullwhip effect in a two-product supply chain is analyzed by a numerical example.