Adaptive management for a turbulent future
Adaptive management for a turbulent future
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.11.019
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Garmestani, Ahjond S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allen, Craig R.;Fontaine, Joseph J.;Garmestani, Ahjond S.
今天人类面临的挑战与过去不同，因为随着人类影响力规模的扩大，我们最大的挑战本质上已成为全球性的，以前可以通过人口转移或资源转换来解决的局部问题，现在聚合（即“扩大规模”）限制了潜在的管理选择。适应性管理是一种自然资源管理方法，强调通过管理进行学习，其理念是知识是不完整的，我们认为我们知道的很多东西实际上是错误的。适应性管理具有明确的结构，包括仔细阐明目标、确定替代管理目标和因果假设，以及收集数据并进行评估和重申的程序。显然，适应性管理已经成熟，但也走到了十字路口。从业者和科学家已经开发出适应性管理和结构化决策技术，数学家也开发出了减少资源管理中遇到的不确定性的方法，但仍然存在对该方法的误用和对其目的的误解。具有讽刺意味的是，对“适应性管理”一词的混淆可能源于该方法固有的灵活性，这导致了对“适应性管理”的多种解释，这些解释遵循复杂性和先验设计的连续体。适应性管理并不是解决“棘手问题”的灵丹妙药，因为它不会产生简单的答案，并且仅适用于不确定性和可控性都很高的自然资源管理问题的子集。尽管如此，适应性管理的概念基础很简单；复杂的社会生态系统的动态和行为总是存在固有的不确定性和不可预测性，但仍然必须做出管理决策，并且只要有可能，我们就应该将学习纳入管理。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版
The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management. Published by Elsevier Ltd.