Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall
Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall
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DOI：
10.1029/1999gl010948
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发表时间：
2000-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
M. Saunders;R. Chandler;C. Merchant;F. Roberts
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Saunders;R. Chandler;C. Merchant;F. Roberts
飓风是美国损失最惨重的自然灾害。台风是影响东南亚大部分地区的最昂贵、最致命的自然灾害。 ENSO 是地球上最强的年际气候信号，是造成北大西洋和西北太平洋强烈热带气旋数量逐年变化的一个重要因素。我们首次建立：（1）ENSO对全流域飓风和台风发生和登陆发生率的空间（0.5度网格）影响； （2）温暖和寒冷ENSO事件不同发病率背后的空间（7.5度网格或美国州水平）统计显着性； (3) 加强 ENSO 对区域袭击率和重要性的影响（仅限飓风）。我们的数据包括大西洋 98 年（1900-97 年）和西北太平洋 33 年（1965-97 年）。在美国州一级，我们发现一些地区的暖季 ENSO 和冷季 ENSO 登陆发生率差异显着，达到 90% 或更高。我们的研究结果为登陆热带气旋的季节性预报提供了有用的长期可预测性。
Hurricanes are the United States' costliest natural disaster. Typhoons rank as the most expensive and deadly natural catastrophe affecting much of southeast Asia. A significant contributor to the year‐to‐year variability in intense tropical cyclone numbers in the north Atlantic and northwest Pacific is ENSO — the strongest interannual climate signal on the planet. We establish for the first time: (1) the spatial (0.5 degree grid) impacts of ENSO on the basin‐wide occurrence and landfall strike incidence of hurricanes and typhoons; (2) the spatial (7.5 degree grid or US state level) statistical significance behind the different incidence rates in warm and cold ENSO episodes; and (3) the effect of strengthening ENSO on regional strike rates and significances (hurricanes only). Our data comprise 98 years (1900–97) for the Atlantic and 33 years (1965–97) for the NW Pacific. At the US state level, we find several regions where the difference in landfalling incidence rate between warm and cold ENSO regimes is significant at the 90% level or higher. Our findings offer promise of useful long‐range predictability to seasonal forecasts of landfalling tropical cyclones.