PROBABILISTIC MENTAL MODELS - A BRUNSWIKIAN THEORY OF CONFIDENCE
PROBABILISTIC MENTAL MODELS - A BRUNSWIKIAN THEORY OF CONFIDENCE
复制标题
DOI：
10.1037/0033-295x.98.4.506
复制
发表时间：
1991-10-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
KLEINBOLTING, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
GIGERENZER, G;HOFFRAGE, U;KLEINBOLTING, H
迄今为止，关于人们对常识的信心的研究产生了两个相当稳定的结果，许多不一致的结果，也没有全面的理论。我们提出了这样一个全面的框架，概率心理模型理论（PMM理论）。理论（a）解释了文献中所反映的过度自信效应（平均置信度高于正确答案的百分比）和难易效应（过度自信随着题目难度的增加而增加），（B）预测了这两种效应出现、消失或反转的条件。此外，（c）它预测了一种新的现象，即置信频率效应，即对单个事件（即，任何给定的答案都是正确的）和从长远来看正确答案的频率的判断。两个实验报告，支持PMM理论，通过确认这些预测，并在文献中报道的几个明显的异常解释和整合到本框架。
Research on people's confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a comprehensive framework, the theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM theory). The theory (a) explains both the overconfidence effect (mean confidence is higher than percentage of answers correct) and the hard-easy effect (overconfidence increases with item difficulty) reponed in the literature and (b) predicts conditions under which both effects appear, disappear, or invert. In addition, (c) it predicts a new phenomenon, the confidence-frequency effect, a systematic difference between a judgment of confidence in a single event (i.e., that any given answer is correct) and a judgment of the frequency of correct answers in the long run. Two experiments are reported that support PMM theory by confirming these predictions, and several apparent anomalies reported in the literature are explained and integrated into the present framework.