On Graduation from Default, Inflation, and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?
On Graduation from Default, Inflation, and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?
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关于从违约、通货膨胀和银行危机中毕业：难以捉摸还是幻觉？
DOI：
10.1086/657528
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Kenneth Rogoff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rong Qian;Carmen M. Reinhart;Kenneth Rogoff
本文使用了两百多年主权债务、银行业和通货膨胀危机的数据集来探讨一个国家需要多长时间才能从大多数新兴市场经历的典型的系列危机模式中“毕业”的问题。我们发现，对于违约和通货膨胀危机，二十年是一个重要的市场，但累犯的分布具有极其厚的尾巴。就银行业危机而言，尚不清楚各国是否能够毕业。我们还研究了国际货币基金组织项目的最新现象，这些项目有时会导致“险些失败”，但有时即使在项目启动后也会以违约告终。该论文提出了一个重要的理论问题：为什么国家会经历连续违约，以及它们如何摆脱违约。
This paper uses a data set of over two hundred years of sovereign debt, banking and inflation crises to explore the question of how long it takes a country to "graduate" from the typical pattern of serial crisis that most emerging markets experience. We find that for default and inflation crises, twenty years is a significant market, but the distribution of recidivism has extremely fat tails. In the case of banking crises, it is unclear whether countries ever graduate. We also examine the more recent phenomenon of IMF programs, which sometimes result in "near misses" but sometimes end in default even after a program is instituted. The paper raises the important theoretical question of why countries experience serial default, and how they might graduate.