Historical Antarctic mean sea ice area, sea ice trends, and winds in CMIP5 simulations
Historical Antarctic mean sea ice area, sea ice trends, and winds in CMIP5 simulations
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/jgrd.50443
复制
发表时间：
2013-06-16
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Solomon, Susan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mahlstein, Irina;Gent, Peter R.;Solomon, Susan
与北极海冰相反，自 1979 年开始进行卫星测量以来，南极海冰平均面积并未消退，而是缓慢增加。虽然耦合模型比对项目第五阶段 (CMIP5) 档案中的大多数气候模型模拟了最近一段时间南极海冰面积的减少，但这些模型是否可以被认为是错误的，不仅仅取决于与观测结果相比的变化迹象。我们表明，南极地区的内部海冰变化很大，观测到的和模拟的趋势都可能代表自然变化以及外部强迫。虽然一些模型显示出负面趋势，但只有少数模型实际上显示出与可用观测数据时间尺度上的内部变异性相比显着的趋势。此外，模型模拟海冰平均状态的能力也很重要。与 CMIP3 相比，CMIP5 模型中南极海冰的表示并未得到改善，并且在平均状态下显示出不切实际的分布，这可能会影响未来海冰的行为。最后，南极气候和海冰面积不仅会受到海洋和气温变化的影响，还会受到风的变化的影响。大多数 CMIP5 模型模拟的变化与观测结果相比太弱。因此，本研究确定了评估和改进南极地区气候和气候变化模型时需要考虑的几个重点。
In contrast to Arctic sea ice, average Antarctic sea ice area is not retreating but has slowly increased since satellite measurements began in 1979. While most climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive simulate a decrease in Antarctic sea ice area over the recent past, whether these models can be dismissed as being wrong depends on more than just the sign of change compared to observations. We show that internal sea ice variability is large in the Antarctic region, and both the observed and modeled trends may represent natural variations along with external forcing. While several models show a negative trend, only a few of them actually show a trend that is significant compared to their internal variability on the time scales of available observational data. Furthermore, the ability of the models to simulate the mean state of sea ice is also important. The representations of Antarctic sea ice in CMIP5 models have not improved compared to CMIP3 and show an unrealistic spread in the mean state that may influence future sea ice behavior. Finally, Antarctic climate and sea ice area will be affected not only by ocean and air temperature changes but also by changes in the winds. The majority of the CMIP5 models simulate a shift that is too weak compared to observations. Thus, this study identifies several foci for consideration in evaluating and improving the modeling of climate and climate change in the Antarctic region.