Small business under the COVID-19 crisis: Expected short- and medium-run effects of anti-contagion and economic policies.
Small business under the COVID-19 crisis: Expected short- and medium-run effects of anti-contagion and economic policies.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101138
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发表时间：
2021-09
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Tanaka, Mari
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kawaguchi, Kohei;Kodama, Naomi;Tanaka, Mari
本研究通过调查日本小企业经营者对疫情、政策和企业业绩的预期，对防传染和经济政策对小企业的影响进行因果推断。我们首先发现，尽管日本的抗传染政策是以政府要求的形式出现的，在法律上没有强制执行力，但停业要求使目标公司的销售额在COVID-19导致的9个百分点的基线下降基础上下降了10个百分点。第二，使用资格标准的不连续性，我们发现一次性和及时的补贴将企业的生存前景提高了19个百分点。第三，企业业绩的中期复苏预计将在很大程度上取决于感染何时结束，这表明抗传染政策可以补充长期经济目标。
This study makes a causal inference on the effects of anti-contagion and economic policies on small business by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers’ expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. We first find the business suspension request decreased targeted firms’ sales by 10 percentage points on top of the baseline 9 percentage points decline due to COVID-19, even though the Japanese anti-contagion policy was in a form of the government’s request that is not legally enforceable. Second, using a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria, we find lump-sum and prompt subsidies improved firms’ prospects of survival by 19 percentage points. Third, the medium-run recovery of firms’ performance is expected to depend crucially on when infections would end, indicating that the anti-contagion policies could complement longer-run economic goals.