Computable general equilibrium analyses of global economic impacts and adaptation for climate change: the case of tropical cyclones
Computable general equilibrium analyses of global economic impacts and adaptation for climate change: the case of tropical cyclones
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全球经济影响和气候变化适应的可计算一般均衡分析：以热带气旋为例
DOI：
10.1504/ijgw.2014.066050
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
S. Sakaue
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Toyoaki Washida;Koichi Yamaura;S. Sakaue
可计算一般均衡模型已被广泛用于模拟全球变暖和评估气候变化造成的经济损失。然而，迄今为止，很少有研究集中在全球范围内几个行业部门所产生的经济后果。本文利用环境损害与适应评估模型（EMEDA）模拟热带气旋造成的直接经济损失和通过其他部门的增长抵消的损失，以衡量气候变化对全球经济的影响。EMEDA模拟结果表明：1)部分区域经济呈现增长态势，其中4个区域第一产业经济损失抵消，其他区域经济损失增加；2) 7个地区的经济出现增长，只有北美抵消了其第二产业的损失，其他地区的损失更为严重；3)部分地区能够弥补其第三产业的损失，但其他地区的损失有所增加；(4)除东亚地区外，其余地区的等效变化均随气温升高而减小。
Computable general equilibrium models have been widely used for simulating global warming and evaluating economic damages caused by climate change. However, to date little research has focused on the economic consequences incurred across several industry sectors at a global level. This article uses the evaluation model for environmental damage and adaptation (EMEDA) to simulate direct economic damages caused by tropical cyclones and losses that are offset through growth in other sectors to measure the global economic impacts arising from climate change. Simulated results by EMEDA indicate that: 1) several regions experience economic growth, with four regions offsetting economic damages in the primary industry sector whilst the other regions increase their damages; 2) seven regions show economic growth whilst only North America neutralises damage in their secondary sectors, with the other regions revealing more severe losses; 3) several regions are able to offset their tertiary sector losses yet the other regions show an increase in damages; 4) the equivalent variation in all regions except East Asia decreases as temperature increases.