Projected prevalence of US adults with self-reported doctor-diagnosed arthritis, 2005 to 2050
Projected prevalence of US adults with self-reported doctor-diagnosed arthritis, 2005 to 2050
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DOI：
10.1007/s10067-007-0556-7
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发表时间：
2007-05-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Heo, Moonseong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fontaine, Kevin R.;Haaz, Steffany;Heo, Moonseong
Using population-based survey data from the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS), we estimated the population prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed arthritis in the US from 2005 to 2050. Projected arthritis-prevalence data were estimated in 5-year increments along sex- and age-specific categories by multiplying the 2003 BRFSS arthritis prevalence data by the sex-stratified US Census projections. During this 45-year period, we estimate that the total number of US adults aged 20 years or older with arthritis will increase from 60 million to 96 million, a 1.6-fold increase. The increase is projected to be greater in those aged 65 years or older (a 2.3-fold increase) than for those aged 20 to 65 (a 1.3-fold increase). Given increases in the prevalence of known arthritis risk factors (e.g., obesity, Hispanic origin) our projections might underestimate the prevalence of arthritis in the coming years.
