An Aggregate Dynamic Stochastic Model for an Air Traffic System
An Aggregate Dynamic Stochastic Model for an Air Traffic System
复制标题
空中交通系统的聚合动态随机模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Verghese
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sandip Roy;B. Sridhar;G. Verghese
本文建立了空中交通系统（ATS）的集合随机模型。具体而言，利用基于泊松过程的ATS随机描述，我们构建了空域区域内飞机数量的随机动态模型。作为一个例子，所开发的模型用于表示美国ATS的中心计数。我们还讨论了模型中的参数确定，对模型进行了一些分析，并评估了我们的方法。最后，描述了基本模型的两个扩展——一个表示在多个时间尺度上不同大小区域的飞机数量的分层模型，以及一个包含随机干扰（如雷暴）的模型。
In this article, an aggregate stochastic model for an Air Traffic System (ATS) is developed. Specifically, using a stochastic description of an ATS based on Poisson processes, we construct a stochastic dynamic model for aircraft counts in regions of an airspace. As an example, the developed model is used to represent Center counts in the United States ATS. We also discuss parameter determination in the model, present some analyses of the model, and evaluate our methodology. Finally, two extensions of the basic model —a hierarchical model that represents aircraft counts in regions of various sizes at multiple time scales, and a model that incorporates stochastic disturbances such as thunderstorms —are described.