Natural disasters and analysts? earnings forecasts*
Natural disasters and analysts? earnings forecasts*
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自然灾害和分析师？
DOI：
10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101860
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Xiang, Junyi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kong, Dongmin;Lin, Zhiyang;Xiang, Junyi
尽管自然灾害带来了相当大的损失或生命损失，但对资本市场的自然灾害影响的调查证据有限。为了填补这一空白，我们调查了自然灾害，特别是地震对安全分析师的影响？中国对受影响公司的盈利预测。我们得到了三个关键发现。首先，分析师们呢？对位于邻近地区的公司的乐观情绪显著下降。其次，地震对公司收益和股票收益没有显著影响，从而表明震后分析师的悲观情绪并不是基于理性判断。第三，媒体的关注促进了分析师的非理性悲观情绪，而地震后的悲观情绪是心理冲击导致的启发式偏差的结果。然而，在最初的非理性预测之后，分析师纠正了这种偏见。综上所述，我们的发现有助于更广泛的心理学和经济学文献，即自然灾害对分析师预测的影响。
The effects of natural disasters on capital markets have been investigated by limited evidence even though these calamities bring considerable damages or loss of life. To fill this gap, we investigate the impacts of natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, on security analysts? earnings forecasts for affected firms in China. We obtain three key findings. First, analysts? optimism significantly decreases for firms located in neighborhood areas. Second, earthquakes do not significantly affect firm earnings and stock returns, thereby indicating that post-earthquake analyst pessimism is not based on rational judgment. Third, media attention promotes irrational pessimism among analysts, and post-earthquake pessimism is a result of heuristics bias attributable to psychological shocks. However, analysts correct the bias after initial irrational forecasts. Taken together, our findings contribute to the broader psychology and economics literature on the effects of natural disasters on analyst forecasts.