POLICY LESSONS FROM TRADE-FOCUSED, 2-SECTOR MODELS
POLICY LESSONS FROM TRADE-FOCUSED, 2-SECTOR MODELS
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DOI：
10.1016/0161-8938(90)90002-v
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发表时间：
1990-12-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
ROBINSON, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DEVARAGAN, S;LEWIS, JD;ROBINSON, S
本文描述了如何从发展中国家的小型两部门一般均衡模型中指定、求解和吸取政策教训。在过去20年中，外部环境和经济政策的变化在决定这些经济体的业绩方面发挥了重要作用。外部冲击与政策反应之间的关系是复杂的。我们认为，两部门模型提供了一个很好的分析起点，因为发展中国家近年来所面临的外部冲击的性质和他们所引发的政策反应。这些模型捕捉到了外部冲击和经济政策在经济中产生涟漪的基本机制，总的来说，冲击涉及对外部门：贸易条件冲击，如1973- 1974年石油价格上涨四倍或1980年代中期初级商品价格下跌;或外国资本流入减少。最普遍提出的对策（通常是国际机构提出的）也是针对对外部门的：（1）使真实的汇率贬值，以适应不利的贸易条件冲击或减少外债;（2）减少扭曲性税收（其中有些是贸易税），以提高经济效率，使经济在世界市场上更具竞争力。
This paper describes how to specify, solve, and draw policy lessons from small, two-sector, general equilibrium models of developing countries. In the last two decades, changes in the external environment and economic policies have been instrumental in determining the performance of these economies. The relationship between external shocks and policy responses is complex. We argue that two-sector models provide a good starting point for analysis because of the nature of the external shocks faced by developing countries in recent years and the policy responses they have elicited. These models capture the essential mechanisms by which external shocks and economic policies ripple through the economy.By and large, the shocks have involved the external sector: terms of trade shocks, such as the fourfold increase in the price of oil in 1973-4 or the decline in primary commodity prices in the mid-1980's; or cutbacks in foreign capital inflows. The policy responses most commonly proposed (usually by international agencies) have also been targeted at the external sector:(1) depreciating the real exchange rate to adjust to an adverse terms of trade shock or to a cutback in foreign borrowing and (2) reduction in distortionary taxes (some of which are trade taxes) to enhance economic efficiency and make the economy more competitive in world markets.