Potential contributions of forestry and wood use to climate change mitigation in Japan
Potential contributions of forestry and wood use to climate change mitigation in Japan
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DOI：
10.1007/s10310-016-0527-4
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发表时间：
2016-06
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
M. Matsumoto;H. Oka;Y. Mitsuda;S. Hashimoto;Chihiro Kayo;Y. Tsunetsugu;M. Tonosaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Matsumoto;H. Oka;Y. Mitsuda;S. Hashimoto;Chihiro Kayo;Y. Tsunetsugu;M. Tonosaki
通过考虑森林从大气中去除碳与木材使用减少排放之间的权衡和互补，我们为日本开发了森林部门碳综合模型。我们根据模型预测讨论日本的缓解措施。综合模型包括森林模型和木材利用模型。基于采伐和木材使用的三种情景（基线、适度增加和快速增加），综合模型预测了到2050年的缓解效果，包括森林碳清除和通过更广泛使用木材减少排放。结果表明，在所考虑的三种情景下，森林不会成为净碳排放源。在大多数时期，基线情景对于缓解气候变化最为有效。然而，快速增长情景下的森林碳清除量和木材使用减少的碳排放总量超过了2043年后温和增长情景下的碳排放量。这是由于强有力的减缓活动：促进补植、使用高产新品种和木材使用。结果还表明，在快速增长的情况下，由于木材使用量增加而导致的排放量减少抵消了 2050 年碳清除量减少的 67.9%。结果表明，由于日本人工林相对年轻，短期内森林碳清除最为重要，而从长远来看，材料和能源替代的缓解效果可能会变得更大。
By considering trade-offs and complementarity between carbon removal from the atmosphere by forests and emission reduction by wood use, we developed a forest-sector carbon integrated model for Japan. We discuss mitigation measures for Japan based on model projections. The integrated model included the forest model and the wood use model. Based on three scenarios (baseline, moderate increase, and rapid increase) of harvesting and wood use, the integrated model projected mitigation effects including carbon removal by forests and emission reduction through the wider use of wood, until 2050. Results indicate that forests will not become a source of net carbon emissions under the three scenarios considered. The baseline scenario is most effective for mitigating climate change, for most periods. However, the sum total of carbon removal in forests and carbon emission reductions by wood use under the rapid increase scenario exceeded the one of the moderate increase scenario after 2043. This was because of strong mitigation activities: promoting replanting, using new high-yield varieties, and wood use. The results also indicated that increases in emission reduction due to greater wood use compensated for 67.9 % of the decrease of carbon removal in 2050, for the rapid increase scenario. The results show that carbon removal in forests is most important in the short term because of the relative youth of the planted forests in Japan, and that mitigation effects by material and energy substitution may become greater over the longer term.