Is there a Conservative 'blue wall'?
Is there a Conservative 'blue wall'?
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保守党有“蓝墙”吗？
DOI：
10.1111/newe.12253
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Curtice J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Curtice J
自由民主党在切舍姆和阿默舍姆补选中的胜利提醒我们，英国脱欧可能给保守党带来潜在的选举不利因素。虽然该党在2015年至2019年期间巩固了其在脱欧选民中的实力，但其在留欧支持者中的支持率有所下降（Curtice，即将出版）。因此，人们很可能已经预料到，该党在切舍姆和阿默舍姆这样的席位上可能会很脆弱。切舍姆和阿默舍姆虽然传统上是保守党的席位，但也是超过一半（55%）选民支持留欧的席位。尽管所有的补选都有自己的特点--对规划和HS 2的担忧似乎在切舍姆和阿默舍姆产生了特别的共鸣--但结果似乎为这样一种说法提供了一些可信度，即在英国退欧之后，保守党可能有失去传统安全席位的“蓝墙”的风险，就像工党在2019年被证明是脆弱的一样，在英格兰北部和中部地区曾经有一个安全席位的“红墙”，然而，支持离开（Kangasooriam，2019; Mattinson，2020）。但是，这样的“蓝墙”真的存在吗？迄今为止保守党控制的支持留欧的席位是否会成为鲍里斯·约翰逊的致命弱点，使他无法在第二次大选中获胜？或者首相能把在切舍姆和阿默舍姆的失败当作一个小的地方困难而不予理睬吗？
The Liberal Democrat by-election victory in Chesham & Amersham has served to remind us of the potential electoral downside that Brexit could pose for the Conservatives. While the party consolidated its strength between 2015 and 2019 among Leave voters, its support fell back among Remain supporters (Curtice, forthcoming). As a result, it might well have been anticipated that the party would potentially be vulnerable in a seat like Chesham & Amersham that, while traditionally a Conservative seat, was also one where well over half (55%) of voters had backed Remain. Although all by-elections have their own particular features – and concern about planning and HS2 appear to have had a particular resonance in Chesham & Amersham – the outcome appeared to lend some credibility to the claim that, in the wake of Brexit, the Conservatives might be at risk of losing a 'blue wall' of traditionally safe seats, much as Labour proved to be vulnerable in 2019 in a 'red wall' of onetime safe seats in the North of England and the Midlands that had, however, backed Leave (Kangasooriam, 2019; Mattinson, 2020).But does such a 'blue wall' really exist? Might hitherto safe Tory-held seats that backed Remain prove to be Boris Johnson's Achilles' heel and deny him a second general election success? Or can the Prime Minister afford to brush off defeat in Chesham & Amersham as a little local difficulty that has little in the way of wider electoral significance?