Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa
Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0907998106
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发表时间：
2009-12-08
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Lobell, David B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Burke, Marshall B.;Miguel, Edward;Lobell, David B.
国家内部的武装冲突在世界许多地方造成了灾难性的人道主义后果。我们在此首次全面审查全球气候变化对撒哈拉以南非洲武装冲突的潜在影响。我们发现，非洲内战与气温之间有着密切的历史联系，温暖的年份导致战争的可能性大幅增加。结合气候模型对未来气温趋势的预测，这一对气温的历史反应表明，到2030年，武装冲突的发生率将增加约54%，如果未来的战争与最近的战争一样致命，那么战争死亡人数将增加39.3万人。我们的研究结果表明，迫切需要改革非洲政府和外国援助捐助者的政策，以应对气温上升。
Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.