Development of a hybrid type assessment method for power system dynamic reliability
Development of a hybrid type assessment method for power system dynamic reliability
复制标题
电力系统动态可靠性混合型评估方法的开发
DOI：
10.1109/icsmc.1999.814224
复制
发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Ogino
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Miki;D. Okitsu;M. Kushida;T. Ogino
防止故障连锁的最优方案的确定是电力系统规划中的重要任务之一。为了合理地做出上述决策，必须发展有效的电力系统动态可靠性评估方法。如果单独使用到目前为止提出的模拟或分析方法，则计算时间变得太长或计算误差变得太大。针对这种情况，我们提出了一种混合型的评估方法，可以大大降低上述问题的程度。这种方法的基本概念如下。(1)三种任务（发电厂动态仿真，事件树的建设，保护系统的可靠性分析）交替使用以前的结果。(2)首先，假设所有保护系统正常运行，构建事件树。考虑到保护系统的多重故障，这些树被逐步扩展。将该方法应用于由5台发电机、11条线路和19个节点组成的电力系统模型。应用结果表明，该方法能准确评估电力系统动态可靠性。该方法的优点是可以通过调整事件树的扩展程度和电厂动态模型的细节程度来实现计算时间和误差之间的折衷。我们相信，在未来的电力系统动态可靠性评估专家系统的建设，由于这种方法将大大有助于提高规划，以防止电力系统故障连锁。
The decision of the optimum scheme for preventing fault cascading is one of the most important tasks in power system planning. In order to make the above decision reasonably, it is indispensable to develop effective assessment methods for power system dynamic reliability. If the simulation or analysis method proposed up to this time is singly used, the calculation time becomes too large or the calculation error become too large. Considering this situation, we developed a hybrid type assessment method which can drastically decrease the degree of the above problem. The basic conception of this method is as follows. (1) Three kind of tasks (simulation of power plant dynamics, construction of event trees, reliability analysis of protection systems) are carried out alternately using previous results. (2) First, event trees are constructed assuming that all protection systems act normally. These trees are gradually extended considering multi-failures of protection systems. This method was applied to a model power system composed of 5 generators, 11 lines and 19 nodes. Results of application confirm that this method can exactly assess power system dynamic reliability. This method has the merit that the trade-off between the decrease of calculation time and error can easily carried out by adjusting the extension degree of event trees and the details degree of power plant dynamics models. We are confident that an assessment expert system for power system dynamic reliability constructed due to this method in the future will greatly contribute to the improvement of the planning for preventing fault cascading of power systems.