Age-at-death estimation in an Italian historical sample: A test of the Suchey-Brooks and transition analysis methods
Age-at-death estimation in an Italian historical sample: A test of the Suchey-Brooks and transition analysis methods
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DOI：
10.1002/ajpa.22126
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发表时间：
2012-10-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Hens, Samantha M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Godde, Kanya;Hens, Samantha M.
越来越多的研究表明，一种相对较新的方法——转变分析——可以提高衰老的准确性。尽管转变分析是为古人口学研究而开发的，但大多数后续研究都在法医学领域，在生物考古学背景下的工作很少。使用对撒丁岛历史意大利人的目标样本进行评分的苏奇-布鲁克斯耻骨联合阶段，我们比较了结合贝叶斯方法的转变分析与标准苏奇-布鲁克斯年龄范围之间的衰老准确性。由于难以为生物考古样本确定合理的信息先验，我们还比较了年龄估计的信息先验和统一先验的结果。已发布的特里收藏和巴尔干种族灭绝受害者的过渡年龄与从先验得出的冈珀茨危险模型生成的参数结合使用。利用过渡年龄和危险参数来计算每个 Suchey-Brooks 阶段的最高后验密度区域，也称为覆盖范围或年龄范围。每个先验以及参数都被输入到累积二项式测试中。结果表明，贝叶斯方法优于单独的 Suchey-Brooks 技术。特里收藏超越了巴尔干半岛，成为导出转变分析参数的合理样本。人群之间的这种差异是由于不同的阶段内死亡年龄分布造成的，这反映了人群之间老龄化的差异。这些结果表明，生物考古学家在历史和考古人口老龄化时应努力通过使用信息丰富的先验来应用贝叶斯分析。 Am J Phys Anthropol 149:259265，2012。(c) 2012 Wiley periodicals, Inc.
A growing body of research is demonstrating increased accuracy in aging from a relatively new method, transition analysis. Although transition analysis was developed for paleodemographic research, a majority of subsequent studies have been in the forensic arena, with very little work in bioarchaeological contexts. Using the Suchey-Brooks pubic symphysis phases, scored on a target sample of historic Italians from the island of Sardinia, we compare accuracy of aging between transition analysis combined with a Bayesian approach and the standard Suchey-Brooks age ranges. Because of the difficulty in identifying a reasonable informative prior for bioarchaeological samples, we also compared results of both an informative prior and a uniform prior for age estimation. Published ages-of-transition for the Terry Collection and Balkan genocide victims were used in conjunction with parameters generated from Gompertz hazard models derived from the priors. The ages-of-transition and hazard parameters were utilized to calculate the highest posterior density regions, otherwise known as coverages or age ranges, for each Suchey-Brooks phase. Each prior, along with the parameters, were input into cumulative binomial tests. The results indicate that the Bayesian approach outperformed the Suchey-Brooks technique alone. The Terry Collection surpassed the Balkans as a reasonable sample from which to derive transition analysis parameters. This discrepancy between populations is due to different within phase age-at-death distributions that reflect differences in aging between the populations. These results indicate bioarchaeologists should strive to apply a Bayesian analysis when aging historic and archaeological populations by employing an informative prior. Am J Phys Anthropol 149:259265, 2012. (c) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.