TSUNAMI SOURCE REGION PARAMETER IDENTIFICATION AND TSUNAMI FORECASTING
TSUNAMI SOURCE REGION PARAMETER IDENTIFICATION AND TSUNAMI FORECASTING
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海啸源区参数识别与海啸预报
DOI：
10.1142/s179343110800027x
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Xiaoming Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Liu;Xiaoming Wang
虽然太平洋/阿拉斯加海啸预警中心的海啸预警系统已经成功地预报了最近的几次海啸事件，但预测方法的许多基本特征仍然没有得到很好的理解。例如，该方法中使用的次断层元素的大小对预测结果的准确性有什么影响？海底位移的形状对各次断层元件的作用是什么？在本文中，我们进行了几个数值实验来寻求答案。主要有两点：(1)次断层单元的大小必须满足长波假设。换句话说，如果用子断层单元的宽度Ls表示，用海盆水深h表示，则Ls必须大于20h。当次断层单元宽度小于上述条件时，频率频散变得越来越重要，预测过程变得不那么令人满意。(2)如果能够合理估计俯冲带的倾角、走向、倾角、震中深度等地球物理性质，则建议采用Okada理论计算各次断层单元上的海底变形形态。然而，当缺乏这些信息时，预测过程仍然可以提供有用的高斯形状预测。
Although the tsunami early warning system in the Pacific/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center has successfully forecasted several recent tsunami events, many fundamental characteristics of the forecasting methodology are still not well understood. For example, what are the effects of the size of the sub-fault elements used in the approach on the accuracy of the forecasting results? What is the role of shape of seafloor displacement prescribed on each sub-fault element? In this paper, we have performed several numerical experiments to seek for answers. Two major points are concluded: (1) The size of sub-fault element must satisfy the long-wave assumption. In other words, if the width of the sub-fault element is denoted as Ls and h the water depth in ocean basin, Ls must be greater than 20h. If the sub-fault element width is smaller than the above condition, the frequency dispersion becomes increasingly important and the forecasting procedure becomes less satisfactory. (2) If the geophysical properties of the subduction zone, such as the dip, strike, rake and the depth of the epicentre, can be reasonably estimated, Okada's theory is recommended to calculate the shape of seafloor deformation on each sub-fault element. However, when this information is lacking, the forecasting procedure can still provide useful forecasting with the Gaussian shape.
影响因子：
3
作者：
Fujii, Yushiro;Satake, Kenji
通讯作者：
Satake, Kenji