SERMeQ Model Produces a Realistic Upper Bound on Calving Retreat for 155 Greenland Outlet Glaciers
SERMeQ Model Produces a Realistic Upper Bound on Calving Retreat for 155 Greenland Outlet Glaciers
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DOI：
10.1029/2020gl090213
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发表时间：
2020-08
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lizz Ultee;J. Bassis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lizz Ultee;J. Bassis
在21世纪海平面上升的模型预测中，因冰山崩裂导致的陆地冰流失速率是造成预测差异的一个关键因素。要计算格陵兰岛因冰山崩裂造成的质量损失尤其具有挑战性，因为那里的冰通过数百条冰川流出，其中许多冰川的规模小于典型的模型网格尺度，最终流入海洋。在此，我们运用一种由表面质量平衡驱动、计算效率高的网络流线模型（SERMeQ），对格陵兰冰盖155条入海冰川在十年间因崩裂而产生的退缩上限进行模拟——其解析出的冰川数量是此前的五倍。我们发现，91%被研究的冰川都符合这一退缩上限，且模拟的冰川末端位置变化与观测到的变化相关。SERMeQ能够从物理层面为格陵兰冰盖与不同气候预测相关的动态质量损失的前瞻性预测提供一致的约束条件。
The rate of land ice loss due to iceberg calving is a key source of variability among model projections of the 21st century sea level rise. It is especially challenging to account for mass loss due to iceberg calving in Greenland, where ice drains to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers, many smaller than typical model grid scale. Here, we apply a numerically efficient network flowline model (SERMeQ) forced by surface mass balance to simulate an upper bound on decadal calving retreat of 155 grounded outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet—resolving five times as many outlets as was previously possible. We show that the upper bound holds for 91% of glaciers examined and that simulated changes in terminus position correlate with observed changes. SERMeQ can provide a physically consistent constraint on forward projections of the dynamic mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet associated with different climate projections.