Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature
Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-11-599-2011
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发表时间：
2010-07
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
N. Gillett;H. Akiyoshi;S. Bekki;P. Braesicke;V. Eyring;R. Garcia;A. Karpechko;C. McLinden;O. Morgenstern;D. Plummer;J. Pyle;E. Rozanov;J. Scinocca;K. Shibata
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文献类型：
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作者：
N. Gillett;H. Akiyoshi;S. Bekki;P. Braesicke;V. Eyring;R. Garcia;A. Karpechko;C. McLinden;O. Morgenstern;D. Plummer;J. Pyle;E. Rozanov;J. Scinocca;K. Shibata
最近完成的三套只考虑温室气体、考虑所有人为强迫以及考虑人为和自然强迫的多种化学-气候模式的模拟，使得能够利用探测和归属技术对观测到的平流层变化的原因进行定量评估。总柱臭氧对卤化臭氧消耗物质和自然强迫的反应是可以检测到的，并且在模型和观测中是一致的。然而，在模式和观测中，臭氧对温室气体的总响应似乎不一致，这可能是因为模式无法适当地模拟对流层臭氧的变化。在平流层中上层，模拟和观测的SBUV/SAGE臭氧变化基本一致，在观测中可以检测到不同的人为和自然反应。臭氧消耗物质和自然强迫的影响也可以在观测到的较低平流层温度中分别检测到，模拟和观测到的对这些强迫和温室气体变化的响应的幅度是一致的。在平流层中上层，模拟的自然和人为联合反应是可以检测到的，并与观测一致，但在我们的分析中无法单独检测到温室气体和臭氧消耗物质的影响。
Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable and consistent in models and observations. However, the total ozone response to greenhouse gases in the models and observations appears to be inconsistent, which may be due to the models' inability to properly simulate tropospheric ozone changes. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.