Decline of an arctic top predator: synchrony in colony size fluctuations, risk of extinction and the subpolar gyre
Decline of an arctic top predator: synchrony in colony size fluctuations, risk of extinction and the subpolar gyre
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00442-013-2701-0
复制
发表时间：
2013-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Steen, Harald
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Descamps, Sebastien;Strom, Hallvard;Steen, Harald
种群变动的同步性分析是生态学的中心课题。它可以帮助确定调节种群的因素，以及这些因素发挥影响的规模。使用长期的数据从七Brunnich的海鸠殖民地在挪威斯瓦尔巴群岛，我们确定，每年的人口波动同步的七个殖民地。第七个殖民地位于更远的地方，处于不同的海洋系统中。此外，自1990年代后期以来，所有七个殖民地都以非常相似的模式大幅下降。如果人口下降的速度不改变，斯瓦尔巴群岛的布伦尼克海鸠很有可能在未来50年内成为准灭绝。不同殖民地之间的高度同步可能会进一步增加灭绝的风险。我们的研究结果表明，环境强迫在布氏海鸠的殖民地大小波动中起作用（即，Moran效应）。这些波动很好地解释了变化的副极地环流在该地区的布伦尼奇的海鸠越冬。这个副极地环流在20世纪90年代中期减弱，导致北大西洋变暖。我们的研究表明，这种在副极地环流的盆地规模的转变是密切相关的，在斯瓦尔巴特群岛Brunnich的海鸠的下降。我们的研究结果表明，因果机制连接在北大西洋和Brunnich的海鸠种群动态的海洋条件的变化可能介导的，至少部分地，在招聘的变化。
Analysis of synchrony in population fluctuations is a central topic in ecology. It can help identify factors that regulate populations, and also the scales at which these factors exert their influence. Using long-term data from seven Brunnich's guillemot colonies in Svalbard, Norway, we determined that year to year population fluctuations were synchronized in six of the seven colonies. The seventh colony was located farther away and in a different oceanographic system. Moreover, all seven colonies have declined significantly since the late 1990s following a very similar pattern. If the rate of population decline does not change, Brunnich's guillemots in Svalbard have a high probability of becoming quasi-extinct within the next 50 years. The high synchrony between the different colonies could further increase this risk of extinction. Our results indicate that environmental forcing plays a role in the colony size fluctuation of Brunnich's guillemot (i.e., a Moran effect). These fluctuations are well explained by changes in the subpolar gyre in the region where Brunnich's guillemots overwinter. This subpolar gyre weakened in the mid-1990s, leading to a warming of the North Atlantic. Our study indicates that this basin-scale shift in the subpolar gyre is closely related to the decline in Brunnich's guillemot in Svalbard. Our results suggest that the causal mechanism linking changes in oceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic and Brunnich's guillemot population dynamics are likely mediated, at least partly, by changes in recruitment.