Weather Variability Associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue Vector) Oviposition Dynamics in Northwestern Argentina
Weather Variability Associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue Vector) Oviposition Dynamics in Northwestern Argentina
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0127820
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发表时间：
2015-05-20
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Almiron, Walter R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Estallo, Elizabet L.;Luduena-Almeida, Francisco F.;Almiron, Walter R.
本研究的目的是建立一个预测模型，通过评估天气变化与埃及伊蚊产卵动态的季节性波动在奥兰，在阿根廷西北部的城市水平。在2005-2007年期间，每周监测90个诱蚊产卵器在市区的产卵动态进行了评估。每周收集的鸡蛋数量和天气变量（降雨量，光周期，水蒸气压，温度和相对湿度）之间的相关性进行了有和没有时间滞后（1至6周）。一个逐步多元线性回归分析进行了一组气象变量，从第一年的研究与变量的时间滞后，最好的产卵相关。使用研究第二年（2006年10月至2007年）的数据进行了模型验证。最低温度和降雨量是最重要的变量。在10摄氏度以下的温度下没有发现鸡蛋。最显著的时间滞后为最低温度和降雨3周，水汽压3周，最高温度6周。在降雨后的三周内，在适当的最低温度下，预计奥兰将出现埃及伊蚊。组合气象变量的最佳拟合预测模型解释了70%的方差（调整R-2）。Ae之间的关系。预测模型对埃及伊蚊产卵量的预测结果为r（s）= 0.80（P < 0.05）。所开发的预测模型将允许预测Ae的增加和减少。根据奥兰市的气象资料，埃及伊蚊产卵活动，并根据气象变量，可以提前三或四周预测媒介活动。
This study aims to develop a forecasting model by assessing the weather variability associated with seasonal fluctuation of Aedes aegypti oviposition dynamic at a city level in Oran, in northwestern Argentina. Oviposition dynamics were assessed by weekly monitoring of 90 ovitraps in the urban area during 2005-2007. Correlations were performed between the number of eggs collected weekly and weather variables (rainfall, photoperiod, vapor pressure of water, temperature, and relative humidity) with and without time lags (1 to 6 weeks). A stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was performed with the set of meteorological variables from the first year of study with the variables in the time lags that best correlated with the oviposition. Model validation was conducted using the data from the second year of study (October 2006-2007). Minimum temperature and rainfall were the most important variables. No eggs were found at temperatures below 10 degrees C. The most significant time lags were 3 weeks for minimum temperature and rains, 3 weeks for water vapor pressure, and 6 weeks for maximum temperature. Aedes aegypti could be expected in Oran three weeks after rains with adequate min temperatures. The best-fit forecasting model for the combined meteorological variables explained 70 % of the variance (adj. R-2). The correlation between Ae. aegypti oviposition observed and estimated by the forecasting model resulted in r(s) = 0.80 (P < 0.05). The forecasting model developed would allow prediction of increases and decreases in the Ae. aegypti oviposition activity based on meteorological data for Oran city and, according to the meteorological variables, vector activity can be predicted three or four weeks in advance.