Dynamics of local interactions and evacuation behaviors in a social network
Dynamics of local interactions and evacuation behaviors in a social network
复制标题
社交网络中局部互动和疏散行为的动态
DOI：
10.1016/j.trc.2021.103056
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hato Eiji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Urata Junji;Hato Eiji
本文研究了在网络形成过程中，社会互动如何影响疏散的选择。主要目标是通过考虑影响者和整个网络结构如何影响一对一的互动来详细评估其他个体的影响力。本研究提出了一个分析框架，同时评估当地的互动和面对面的沟通网络的形成。该框架适用于动态场景，因为局部交互强烈影响人类决策，并且网络形成随时间而变化。基于Brock和Durlauf（2001）的详细局部交互模型分析了与配对和行为相关的交互权重的差异。我们利用嵌套伪似然方法估计了局部相互作用模型中的效用和非对称权参数。我们提出的网络形成模型，这是基于离散选择模型，评估的概率，面对面的沟通和空间相关性的互动对在一个地区。我们的案例研究验证了引入（1）不对称权重的相互作用在疏散出发的选择和（2）空间相关性的网络形成模型，使用的行为数据收集在一个没有通知的灾难在一个被摧毁的定居点。在数值模拟中，所提出的评估框架可以有效地说明网络结构对交互影响的选择概率的影响。此外，该框架是有用的，以评估迅速疏散的关键措施。
This paper examines how social interaction affects the choice to evacuate during a network formation process. The primary objective is to evaluate in detail the influence of other individuals by considering how influencers and entire network structures affect one-to-one interactions. This study proposes an analytical framework for the simultaneous evaluation of local interaction and face-to-face communication network formation. This framework is appropriate for dynamic scenarios, because local interactions strongly influence human decision-making and because network formation changes over time. Our detailed local interaction model, which is based on Brock and Durlauf (2001), analyzes the differences in the interaction weights related to pairs and behaviors. We estimate the utility and the asymmetric weight parameters in the local interaction model by using the nested pseudo-likelihood approach. Our proposed network formation model, which is based on the discrete choice model, evaluates the probability of face-to-face communication and the spatial correlations of the interaction pairs in an area. Our case study validates the introduction of (1) asymmetric weights of interaction in the evacuation departure choice and (2) spatial correlation in the network formation model, using the behavioral data collected during a no-notice disaster in a devastated settlement. In numerical simulations, the proposed evaluation framework can effectively illustrate the impact of network structures on the choice probabilities influenced by interactions. Additionally, the framework is useful for evaluating the critical measures for prompt evacuation.