Agricultural Economics Society Prize Essay Asymmetric Price Adjustment and the World Wheat Market
Agricultural Economics Society Prize Essay Asymmetric Price Adjustment and the World Wheat Market
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农业经济学会奖论文不对称价格调整和世界小麦市场
DOI：
10.1111/j.1477-9552.2002.tb00022.x
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Atanu Ghoshray
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Atanu Ghoshray
如果世界小麦市场具有完全竞争性，那么价格上涨的传导程度应与价格下跌的传导程度相同。以往对世界小麦市场结构的研究将其描述为不完全竞争，其特点是产品差异化、市场集中化和政府干预，这意味着价格调整可能是不对称的。本文使用具有不对称调整（称为阈值自回归和动量阈值自回归调整）的协整模型，研究了 1980 年 7 月至 1998 年 12 月国际小麦市场的成对价格差异。结果表明，世界小麦市场高度一体化，几乎不存在不对称的证据。如果确实存在不对称，结果表明调整模式可能是由于反映最终用途的小麦质量差异造成的。
If the world wheat market were to be characterized as perfectly competitive, then price increases should be transmitted to the same extent as price decreases. Past studies on the structure of the world wheat market have described it as imperfectly competitive, characterized by product differentiation, market concentration and government intervention, implying that price adjustment might be asymmetric. This paper examines price differentials in pairs for the international wheat market from July 1980-December 1998 using a cointegration model with asymmetric adjustment known as threshold autoregressive and momentum threshold autoregressive adjustment. The results indicate that the world wheat market is highly integrated and that little evidence for asymmetry exists. Where asymmetry does exist, the results suggest that the pattern of adjustment may be due to the difference in the quality of wheat, reflecting end-use.