The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States
The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.95.26.15618
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发表时间：
1998-12-22
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Manton, KG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Singer, BH;Manton, KG
1982-1994 年全国长期护理调查表明，美国老年人口的残疾率正在加速下降，这表明老年人慢性残疾率每年下降 1.5% 是可以实现的。此外，从 1910 年至今，慢性病的许多危险因素都得到了改善，其中许多与教育有关。预测表明，85-89 岁受教育程度低于 8 年的人口比例将从 1980 年的 65% 下降到 2015 年的 15%。健康和社会经济状况趋势并未直接反映在医疗保险信托基金和社会保障管理局受益人预测中。因此，它们可能与直接考虑健康趋势的预测具有不同的经济影响。每年残疾率下降 1.5%，使赡养比（20-64 岁从事经济活动的人数与 65 岁以上慢性残疾人人数之比）保持在 1994 年的水平之上，即医院保险信托基金处于财政平衡状态时的 22:1，直至 2070 年。在残疾情况没有变化的情况下，预测表明 2070 年的赡养比将比现金流平衡低 8:1-63%。
The 1982-1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85-89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20-64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1-63% below a cash flow balance.