Has the HIV epidemic peaked?
Has the HIV epidemic peaked?
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00217.x
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发表时间：
2008-06-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Pelletier, Francois
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bongaarts, John;Buettner, Thomas;Pelletier, Francois
这项研究回顾了艾滋病毒流行的高度多样化的区域和国家模式，并讨论了流行规模地理差异的可能原因。介绍了疫情的过去趋势和预测，并估计了疫情高峰期。简要评估了新预防技术的潜在未来影响。最后一节总结了疫情对关键人口变量的未来影响。这项分析的主要发现是，艾滋病毒流行在过去十年中达到了一个重大转折点。所有区域的艾滋病毒发病率高峰期都已过去，除东欧外，感染率的高峰期大多都已过去，预计将在2008年达到峰值。但部分由于抗逆转录病毒治疗的延长生命效果和人口的持续增长，预计撒哈拉以南非洲的绝对感染人数将保持缓慢增长，并在全球范围内保持在当前水平附近，从而对公共卫生项目构成持续挑战。预计2005年至2050年期间，没有一个国家的人口规模会因与艾滋病有关的高死亡率而下降。
This study reviews the highly diverse regional and country patterns of HIV epidemics and discusses possible causes of the geographic variation in epidemic sizes. Past trends and projections of the epidemics are presented and the peak years of epidemics are estimated. The potential future impact of new prevention technologies is briefly assessed. A final section summarizes the future impact of the epidemic on key demographic variables. The main finding of this analysis is that the HIV epidemic reached a major turning point over the past decade. The peak years of HIV incidence rates are past for all regions, and the peaks of prevalence rates are mostly in the past except in Eastern Europe, where they are expected to peak in 2008. But owing in part to the life-prolonging effect of antiretroviral therapy and to sustained population growth, the absolute number of infected individuals is expected to keep growing slowly in sub-Saharan Africa and to remain near current levels worldwide, thus posing a continuing challenge to public health programs. No country is expected to see a decline in its population size between 2005 and 2050 that is attributable to high mortality related to AIDS.